Paragon

On 4/6/2018 at 6:29 AM, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. The odds would be very much against snowfall, much less any accumulation.

Even with the cool down coming for next week, I think we might be done with freezing temps. This morning might have been our last freeze here.

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That big change in the pattern has been showing up on the ensembles for several days now. IMO, it's real. Whether or not it holds or is temporarily reversed as April concludes remains to be seen.

Don even with the April we have going even if we have a temporary reversal at the end of the month it would be hard to believe that we'd get any more snow (measurable or otherwise) or even freezing temps near the end of the month.

Download Yoweather it's free and amazing (works on both desktop and phones)- gives you a graphic and interactive user interface of weather conditions around the world (and uses international METAR info to collect the data.)

8 hours ago, tim said:

..agree  WABC7 has the 2 best OMC's..Jeff Smith/Lee Goldberg..and 1 of the worst in A. F.

speaking of Lee..he spoke of an "abrupt pattern change to much warmer weather after April 12-13".

 

Yeah after 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow all day Saturday and another possible snow event Tuesday-Wednesday!

4 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

FWIW, TWC lowered my totals from 8-12 to 5-8. They obviously see something they don't like.

Whenever I tune in to TWC I see something I don't like.

8 hours ago, doncat said:

Don't recall seeing one of our favorite tv mets mentioned here much this winter but here is Nick's forecast:

I'm on the eastern edge of the 9-14 right there ;-) Ch 7 ABC has a similar 10-14" with me also on the eastern edge of the highest totals.

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What was your peak storm depth?

30.4" peak depth, 32.8" measured snowfall

airport official numbers were 28" peak depth, 30.7" measured snowfall, 2.94" LE (so between 10:1 and 11:1)

And congrats on the upcoming wedding! :-)

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Actually up to 30.5" and still snowing...

Nice Ray ;-) You're in lala land like I was after I got my 30" storm in Jan 2016.  I bet you took lots of pics too I filled up 2 32 GB cards with photos and videos.

I'm just going to put this here since there's no other relevant thread for it- who is the fool that decided that DST should be moved from late April- late Oct to weird second week of March to early November?  It must have been made for the South because no way any one is planting anything here in March.  late April-late Oct was a perfect fit for us because it was a symmetric six months and fit in perfectly with our snow season and our planting season.  Instead we now have to deal with DST for the majority of March and it even interferes with the NYC marathon which is run the Sunday of the time change in early November.

Also, it saves NOTHING, since most of us get up at like 5-6 am to get ready for school or work and the sun doesn't come up until after 7 am- IN MARCH!  So thank you to the lame brains that decided that DST should be moved into March.  We now wake up in total darkness and waste electricity for 2 hours in the "morning" instead of wasting it for 2 hours in the "evening"- great job by our stupid politicians, as usual.

Interesting that TWC lowered their totals for NYC from 8-12 to 3-5 and are now saying very little will fall east of there.

On 3/1/2018 at 2:34 PM, mike1984 said:

Most bullish professional map I’ve seen thus far. Wow..going all in on NAM it seems.

 

not really- TWC calling for 6-8" for NYC and Long Island

3 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

And just to continue my apology tour, TWC actually increased their forecast for snowfall in my area.

What does TWC have for you now? I have a feeling they might up totals again in the morning.

Last I saw was 6" here but I'm not taking that seriously lol.

Lee Goldberg going with 6-9" for NYC and 9-12" right from the Queens/Nassau Border on east.

7 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

Is DT buying the 3K NAM? Or just posting for illustrative purposes?

 

lol I didn't even see this but when I saw what the NAM did, it instantly reminded me of the Jan 2016 snowstorm and how it won that one.

More dynamic systems are the NAMs strong suit.

Also he seems to be completely ignoring the 21 inches printed out over central Long Island lol and 17 inches just a few miles south of us.

On 12/27/2017 at 10:37 PM, Wannabehippie said:

Question

When a TV "meteorologist" has no meteorological background, where to do they get their forecasts from?

Usually an inhouse blend of different models, at least that's what the weather channel says lol.

I find it comical that Julie Martin uses the label meteorologist when she can't even pronounce cyclogenesis properly or even describe it without stumbling over the words.

4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Already down to 1F and in a state of total freefall until the wind picks up at some point tonight. The snow is making that squeaking noise underfoot, doesn't get much better. 

Gonna head to the river for sunrise in search of some nice sea smoke. Probably only a few days to see that before there's not enough open water left. 

Going to take pics of it, JC? I wonder if you can capture sea smoke rising from the river at night while the stars are sparkling overhead.

Cold and dry is terrific for AP!

On 11/6/2017 at 5:46 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. 

Those 80s must have been putrid. 

So were the 70s.

The only great winter in the 70s was 1978, outside of that it was either cold and dry or mild and dry or mild and wet lol.

Outside of 1977 even the summers in the 70s were boring.

On 11/28/2017 at 3:59 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t say that, we had a bunch of moderate events in 13/14 and 15/16. But yes the big events have Devine much more frequent 

You get that a lot in winters where we have a lot of mixed events (like 93-94 and 13-14).  15-16 though we had 70% of our snow in one storm (30 inches in Jan 2016 storm.)

I think 14-15 New England got the jackpot every time (except eastern LI shared in the jackpot in the Jan 2015 storm.)  Another winter like that was 2004-05, except we did a bit better with the Jan 2005 storm than we did with the Jan 2015 storm (except for eastern LI)

2003-04 was another example, cold almost like 1993-94 but more snow than ice (but snowfall total was less than 1993-94 because the events were less frequent.)

Almost sounds like black ice!

The fog condensed on the ground and down you went lol.

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Hate to be in the "bullseye"  this far out. But nice to look at.

Looks so much like the Millenium storm someone should pull out maps of that one.

1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

HECS storm for us on euro Long range.. timeframe moves, but models insist we’re gettinf hammered before Jan 2

lol at this rate it will be Jan 2

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

Switching gears, I've just had a look at the Euro for Monday morning and it's definitely a nice solution. While it's hard to ascertain snow amounts without forecast soundings, the .2"-.3" of liquid would amount to a general 2-4" given climo ratios... surface suggests a pasty appeal though. If that pans out, it doesn't get much better. Folks walking up on Christmas morning to a fresh Currier and Ives blanket of snow, but not enough to cause any serious travel issues, with clearing skies by noon. Literal perfection.

That is the best kind of snow, especially for Christmas.  Would like the sun to come out a bit later in the afternoon though so it doesn't melt

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Afaik, it's standard procedure (maybe even a legal requirement?) to keep sensitive archaeological sites under wraps until the relevant authorities have had a chance to poke around. It makes sense, would just be nice to actually get someone on the case.

15 years is a shockingly long time though, seems like no one is interested, or maybe people just haven't heard about it.

38 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

There's a little bit about them in this older NYT article shortly after the initial discovery but the state still hasn't disclosed the exact coordinates or any real details about the apparent walls. Hopefully someone gets the funding and approval to take a closer look at some point... it's been over 15 years so I'm not holding my breath.

Had some brief periods of sleet earlier but nothing now. Tomorrow looks like an all-day 34F rain, lovely

 

Why aren't they disclosing info? Are they leery of crowds of people going there?

34 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Just a few minutes off 84 in northern Putnam County. There are hundreds of these stone chambers in a relatively small area and it seems like a disproportionate amount (assuming they're just colonial root cellars) are aligned with the solstices and/or equinoxes. You probs know by now that I generally follow the mainstream ideas about most things but the alternate theories about ancient stonework in the mid-HV are hard to completely ignore... you could explain away most of it until you got to the 3,000+ y/o rock walls in the middle of the river floor off Storm King, then it gives pause

I wasn't even aware that people lived in that area back then, I'll have to go take a look.  Is this close to Stony Point?  I go there pretty regularly so I definitely want to stop by.

They'd probably be Native Americans if anything I don't think Druids crossed the Atlantic.

But it's pretty intriguing.  If Thor Heyerdahl could cross the Pacific in Kon-Tiki I guess it's possible.

Sometimes I wonder what conventional or mainstream means anymore lol.  It just seems like knowledge that is open to revision with more information.  I was watching Nova a few months ago and they were showing proof in Brazil that ancient Phoenicians escaped from burning Carthage and reached the depths of the Amazon in Brazil by sailing up the Amazon after crossing the Atlantic.  They built these huge structures in the rain forest that bear symbols on the walls that resemble Phoenician.

I was amazed when I saw all that, I had thought all the residents of Carthage were shamelessly destroyed by the Romans when the city was burned to the ground.

But the Phoenicians were renowned sailors, the best in the known world at the time, so I guess it's possible.