Wonderdog

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

I’ve seen this before. 

 

Don't worry. They always trend north.

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I have no doubt we will be adding a week to 10 days to whatever we think the date is for a serviceable pattern.  so it all goes back to 15 Jan timeframe we hope. 

At this time.

22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

WOW.. I would be willing to punt the remainder of Dec for that scenario. 

Bristow, what do you think. Can we eke out 3 inches in western PW county with an over performer? I'd like to break in my new toy.

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Honestly I think 12-16" of snow through the end of January would be pretty good. A lot of great winters had less than that. February is often our best month, so let's hope it gets even better by then.

I agree. 12-16 inches of snow in one month would probably satisfy even Bristow.

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea FV3 has snow to ice to rain on Dec 28

It's ripe with possibilities!

FV3 0Z run has the New Years day storm for two runs in a row. This time it looks like a redevelopment coastal idea. Too far out but at least there are hints that the pattern is trying to change.

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CoastalWx posted this in the NE subforum. Nice read and "cutely" done.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2018-enso-update-relationship-advice

That was a great write-up. We all need a little humor waiting for the atmosphere to respond.

If you look at the 500's just going back a day and a half, it's like night and day for the 22nd storm. How can their be any confidence in long range depictions from the models going out 15 or so days?

A couple of days past Christmas looks very interesting also!

34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 06Z GFS and it is giving us the old, 'Bah Humbug'. It is almost a carbon copy of the storm we just had. On Christmas Eve no less. 

That time period is our next threat. We can will it north up the coast.

Just took the real Wonderdog out for a walk and saw about 10 snowflakes.

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Bet the neighbors liked that.  Regardless of the zone forecast I have trouble seeing any flakes make it up this far.  The storm is weak and the push down is strong.  We will see what happens.  Mine says mainly after 10am..tall order

I think we could still eak out a dusting, maybe a little more. 70% chance starting at 1pm. The older I get the more I enjoy the winter visuals as opposed to getting shellacked. Of course there is the fun of using a snow blower,  I can't deny that. However I can't accept getting fringed in this way, I don't care what month it is. Seems like a lost opportunity. 

26 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

My zone forecast just says Snow.  That is a victory right there.  Congrats to all our southern weenies.  The winter is kicking off in fine fashion with nearly everyone seeing flakes so far this season. Warms my heart like a cup of cocoa.   

I've already had to make one pass with the snow blower!

33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

12k south a tick from 18z at 19.  We may have seen the furthest north extent of the ticks. Barely touches extreme south PWC south of Quantico. 

Hang in there. We're only.a couple of counties away from moderate snowfall. I hear PWC closed schools already for Monday. 

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS E38 is the best of the bunch so we'll hug this one for now

So the storm comes further north on that depiction. 

NWS now has 40% chance of snow tomorrow.

Now I have to gas up the new snow blower. 

Confluence is waning a bit I guess so who's to say it won't continue.

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

It could be the I-40 wall for all I care....as far as MBY goes.  I will be in DC tomorrow for the skins game...I'm sure it will feel and look like snow.  Would be great to a period of light snow during the game....probably a stretch though.

Keep watching radar.

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Flurries heavy at times with blowing and drifting flurries high 32.  That would be a funny zone forecast

We get ground cover to 1.5 inches

You look at the new satellite image from this morning, you wonder how in the hell that storm is gonna miss us to the South

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope.

I'd just be happy to see some snow falling tomorrow afternoon while I watch my Eagles getting pummeled in their secondary. 

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Tough call you and I..we will fail just short is my prediction.

I think we get a surprise dusting.

16 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Don’t feel too sorry. Every model run from overnight has 14-28 inches here in WNC. Make a road trip! 

So I guess you'll be on the proverbial "slippery slope".

FV3 still gets some snow into maybe Richmond. Will be interesting if that verifies wrt grading the models on this annoying storm.