Wonderdog

42 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I highly recommend following Mike Thomas on Facebook.  His posts about patterns and storm development are so informative!  What he sees is the fact that models are signaling a huge NAO swing from negative to positive late next week and so far this winter/fall every other transition produced a storm!  With the euro weeklies trending towards a colder look, maybe we'll squeeze something out!

I'm stealing his graphic.

Late next week, the AO may plummet or it may not. The chart is more or less evenly split on what it does. Hope it picks down.

Can I get a quick analysis of the depiction at hour 174 at the 500 vort level? With that yellow streak moving over us, why no precip? Are they just undeveloped pockets of energy?

0z GFS has a look of an overrunning situation IF a few changes takes place around 1/4/19.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It’s does show that.  I have no idea but my negative mental state has yielded bupkus....so I am reversing course and headed for another port of call.

If there is a phase, that might be a big arse snowstorm, if the timing is right. 

Just now, BristowWx said:

Nope.  Not this time.  Squeeze play between SE ridge and pressing polar front.  Shows suppression but I am not convinced.

I'm not either.  That's what I think it shows now. A slightly stronger HP than it was at 12z. Will be fun tracking this one.

Suppression again.

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

You underestimate our ability to fail my friend.  We excel at this.  And of course your snowblower is also killing our chances.  Merry HoHo

Next week is trending better on the 12z GFS. I think I'll put the oil into the new toy tomorrow. And no, I don't underestimate our penchant for failure. 

FV3 gives us three opportunities and we miss to the north and west on the first two and then miss to the south and east on the third. Call me skeptical but even with our usual lack of luck, I find it hard to believe we get shut out, especially on the 3rd one.

NWS now forecasting rain and snow for next Sunday night and Monday.

Storms don't want to climb up the coast after New Years.

Very random flurry activity in Gainesville. Very random.

I thought the inner circle was the circle of death. 

We need a mod for this supposed good pattern coming up in a few months.

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Toward the end the EPS gets the Pacific right but it's pushing back the Atlantic side lessening the nao more each run. It's still early. Interesting to see where the weeklies go tonight. 

How well do the weeklies usually do? Are there verification scores for them?

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Terrible what a disaster

We have twelve days for that to change.

NWS calling for 30% chance of rain and snow next Sunday.

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s fine.  We got this one.  Trust me I’m a doctor

Listen to him, he's a proctologist!

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Offense needs to score TDs when they get down close. With their running game and Lamar they shouldn't struggle punching it in. They should have been up by at least 10 at the half. Nitpicking, but if they do make the playoffs,, they wont go far controlling TOP and kicking FGs.

Jackson reminds me of Randall Cunningham. He actually seems to be improving at a fast pace.

Less digging at H5 on the NYE storm at 6z. Hope that's a blip and not a step back.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Well without getting too emotional we are still punting about a month of winter if Jan15 is when things get going.  It would take a lot to make this an epic winter at this point unless things change.  

Based on the analysis from the trusted vets on this board, I would be stunned if we don't score a modest event by Jan 10th.

13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We don't want a trough over Alaska. We want that trough to the west over the Aleutians with ridging up through Alaska.

Thanks showme.

I know it's a combination of things but is the trough over Alaska the number one key to our good winter storm patterns? In other words, are we s.o.l. without it?

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

What else can we do besides obsess over weather.  I opened my 401K account and that was an anchored 582dm ridge centered over the the region.  

LOL. Don't worry, your account will move "north" after New Years and I'll be making spare change with my new toy!

7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I got it. But when there is no snow in the forecast and we are waiting for the pattern to become epic it can get a little testy in here.

The dog can't be held responsible for weenie enthusiasm on the second day of winter.

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

always.....how quickly you forget what happened 3 weeks ago....

Verbatim on the Ops its funny how we go from cutterville to suppression depression.  So many ways to hurt onesself.

Just playing around.  Not worried about anything past 7 days on Op runs.  Just having some fun.

That was an attempt at humor.