larrye

So when is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I just looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

This forum (and its former) have a history of people making claims of absolutes, all in the name of pushing back against wishcasting. One only needs to read the first few pages of nearly every single winter month thread going back a decade to find “the season is over”, “the pattern doesnt support snow”, etc...and yet here we are, with one of our snowiest decades in a long time. While the wishcasting and snow goggles are incredibly annoying, some of us find the posts by supposedly intelligent people who are only here to troll or try to be first to claim they had a bad pattern right much worse in the grand scheme of things. Especially when everyone here is supposedly of an age where acting like an asshole is typically frowned upon outside of ps4 games. 

Like I said, nothing wrong with posting any opinion ... snowy or not ... and why you have that opinion. I think it would just be appropriate to refrain from personalizing and from editorializing as a response to someone's opinion ... who may very well turn out to be right (or perhaps not).

It would be nice if those who hoping for more snow would refrain from chastising those who want to be realistic or perhaps even see more snow as unlikely. There is nothing wrong with wanting snow ... I think we all do to one degree or another and there is nothing wrong with having an opinion and stating it here with backup. But weather forecasting is not an exact science yet and there are always going to be those here with differing opinions because there is some subjectivity to all of this. I think it would be helpful to refrain from accusing those who don't see it as as snowy an event as being negative. In this case, it would appear that they turned out to be right. 

1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Where are u getting these #s lol. Not 931 by any means

It has a 931 next to it. I didn't mean to imply that it was 931mb.

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Larrye the diagram Doorman posted has edit here = the L's and X's near 66 -- 44  and it says redeveloping---- NO WHERE near Cape Cod so can you explain what Doorman meant without bashing the new guy ? Thanks

You see the 931 Low? That's hundreds of miles off the coast of Cape Cod.

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

redeveloping at or near the bench mark correct ?

The benchmark? Try a few hundred miles off Cape Cod.

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

This. There's always hyperbole.

The NWS has been pretty decent about this storm. If you look at most models, as this thing pivots and begins transferring to the new Low off the Cape, we do get a chance at more banding. But to think that 'this is just getting going', as if you can just keep looking at model outputs and expect to still reach those totals, infers a serious lack of discipline. The radar and window are your friends, and they're telling you that this won't be a widespread 6+ event, unless there's a substantial redevelopment before it pulls away. 

Exactly. Will there be some places that end up under a band a get a few inches? Yep. But it's 2PM. And it's looking more and more to me like if you want to accept reality, this was way overblown (probably because of the mishap last year where that major storm was underforecast in advance). And I'm not so sure the NWS has been "decent". They started out with 6"-12" north/northwest of NYC. Then 3"-6". They're still showing 5"-10" for northern Westchester. Depends upon how you define "decent".

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Look at the radar , this isnt ending anytime soon. The same people are always negative and give up way too early during a snowstorm.

And the same people always wishcast. Both are always represented here.

What I'd like to know is where are the Mets (I'm clearly not one)? Are the pressures dropping off the coast? Why aren't we seeing the radar fill in with more QPF ... and why aren't we seeing the QPF expand to the west a bit before progressing eastward? That is what usually happens with a rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Unless I'm missing something, that's a pretty narrow "band" of QPF with lots of holes that haven't been backfilled.

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I started my winter weather emails at Merck in the late 90s and then I became head of one of our major synthetic chemical pilot plants in 2000 and part of that job is being on the Site Emergency Mgmt team, given the tons of  flammable solvents and chemicals we have on site and use in that building; then in 2008 I was put in charge of process safety for the site, so continued my involvement with the OEM team.  My weather notes started going to the OEM guys, in the early 2000s, especially since we were all involved in snow removal (our operators are involved in that as part of the contract) and they grew over the years, such that we set up a service to have them sent to about 500 subscribers in the company as of now.  I just do winter weather and tropical weather and it's mostly for fun, but people seem to like them.  So many people wanted me to continue with them after retirement that we have one of the admins taking my content from an email I send her and posting it for employees.  

Congrats on your retirement!

Large flakes moderate to heavy in Tarrytown. Seems to me sooner than expected. Don't know how long it will last, but ...

Snowing heavily now in Tarrytown. Streets and lawns covered. Was sleeting earlier up until about 30 minutes ago.

Snowing heavily now in Tarrytown. Streets and lawns covered. Was sleeting earlier up until about 30 minutes ago.

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like that's during the worst of it 

Thanks. Will hope that the airlines waive their change fees. 

I am due to fly in to HPN around 7PM Wednesday. I presume from what I am seeing/reading that there is a high likelihood of impacts to travel?

2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

HAT to NJ (the loop/frame I quoted you) is around 5 degrees latitude or roughly 260-270 mi. That's why it weakens quite a bit- slow movement and land interaction. Beyond that is irrelevant.

Well, it will weaken ... but as to how much ... this may also not be the final track. You're absolutely right, but we don't yet know the amount of land interaction. 

Anyone have any sense for what the patterns look like (at least for now) in the longer term ... out into week of 8/5 and 8/13? I am looking to plan a staycation and am just wondering if any particular week looks stormy/rainy vs. not.

Sounds like Upton has this starting as rain. Anyone have a gut feel as to the changover time Sunday afternoon/evening in the Metro Area?

Just changed over rather quickly to sleet after mixing for a few minutes in Tarrytown. Maybe got an inch of snow on the ground prior to changeover.

Just changed over rather quickly to sleet after mixing for a few minutes in Tarrytown. Maybe got an inch of snow on the ground prior to changeover.

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's likely correct. I'm right near the Sound.

Same here in Tarrytown. Snow, no mixing yet.

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

The models have shown this for days. They have been surprisingly accurate (if this forecast holds)

There was a poster in this thread questioning ABCs 47 and rain several days ago.

 

It was always there...posters just didnt want to see it.

 

And others accused other posters of "throwing in the towel" too soon when they saw this as a likelihood a few days ago. Some people here need to stop wishcasting and if they do want to wishcast, go ahead and wishcast with some model or climatologic facts and move on ... without the editorial comments towards those who choose to go with what they feel is an accurate forecast (subject to change, of course) that might be light on snow. It's nice to be able to come here and just read and review the analysis from different people. Just my 2 cents.

18 minutes ago, cyclone31 said:

So many white towels being throw and it's only Tuesday

It's just people reacting to what they see as the probabilities resulting from some degree of recent run-to-run consistency on the part of the GFS with some confirmation from the Euro 4 days out + a lack of blocking. We will have to see what the next day or so brings. I don't think people are completely giving up, just expressing what the current likely scenario might be. 

Am I seeing a more zonal-looking flow in the upper levels starting around 8/8? Maybe shifting out of this pattern?

Anybody have any clues from the GFS or Euro as to how long this upper level pattern is going to continue? I saw some indications that it might clear out for the weekend but now in the NWS 7-day, it looks like it continues through at least the middle of next week?

14 hours ago, sb7916 said:

dmillz25? I understand that in summer it rains, it's humid but I always get a little shaky with certain wording especially considering that last July was not a real summer especially that last week of July when nothing but cloud cover dominated and temps were not July like, they were only September like with low to mid 70s and that is what I hope not to see again during the unsettled stretch. Just hoping to get enough of sun out in between showers and storms with high temps at least into the 80s plus Monday July 23 I have a free outdoor movie night to attend at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm and I'm hoping that the weather cooperates for that

OK, so my two cents on this. Take a look at the NWS forecast for this week from Monday. Pay particular attention to Mon, Weds, Thurs, Fri:

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs around 90. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values in the
mid to upper 90s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

Now, take a look at the extended forecast for next week so far:

.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

For someone who is (for example) looking for a week to take vacation, which one would YOU recommend? And with all respect, do you mean to tell me that the extended forecast for next week doesn't look "wet" compared to this week? Mostly Cloudy doesn't even equate to Florida weather in the summer where the sun shines for most of the day and you get some popup convection every afternoon.