larrye

5 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

lol yea sure looks like it caved to the GFS

You really think these Kuchera totals will verify N&W?

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

There is no real trend. None of the models significantly changed tonight from how they were before.  

Exactly. People need to stop freaking out one way or the other. It's Tuesday and we're talking about a storm that is 72 hours off.

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You said it's over

Dude it's Tuesday 

Same reasoning applies to the Euro.

Can anyone provide the technical difference between the Kuchera and the Euro actual snowfall total maps?

2 hours ago, Jt17 said:

Well, you are wrong about it being too far east on that run and no, there were 3 runs in a row that had a HECS or at least very SEC level storm 00z, Mon 00z, Mon 12z, and Tues 00z all had 12+ inches at 10-1 ratios for NYC and likely underdone considering there wasn't too much wind associated and it was quite cold. So that consistency led me and others to develop a fair amount of interest in this time period. And then the entire model suite started to trend towards this solution. Just because it stopped trending that way and the Euro trended away from the coast a bit since, doesn't mean people were jumping on a bandwagon. They were just observing and commenting. You're just using a misrepresentation of the evolution of what actually happened on the models to prove some point that frankly doesn't need to be made. We get it, some people are pessimists and some people are optimists, but what you certainly are not is on the "correct" side of things. It's modeling worth discussing. That's it.

Well now you're saying SECS. Yes, perhaps the 00z Euro today approached SECS, not sure about the other runs you referenced (looked to me like less). And I would still submit that this was not exactly a resounding consistency of runs on the Euro ... together with no validation at all from the GFS. And as you can tell, there are others who are more skilled than I who are commenting on the Upper air pattern who are saying it doesn't appear to be favorable. Look, have a party if you want. I'm not giving up yet, but far as I'm concerned ... I look at probabilities and for a higher probability at this point, I'd expect to see more consistency between runs and between models.

5 hours ago, Jt17 said:

For awhile now? The Euro was HECs at 00z - I think your comment shows people are just as inclined to over-emphasize the negative as people are to wish for snow. While the odds aren't in favor of a big snowstorm this weekend. It's still a relatively reasonable outcome, so something to continue and monitor, not be doom and gloom about. 

So you see one Euro run at 00z that is a HECS with no validation from the GFS and you jump on the bandwagon? You don't consider consistency at all? Take a look back at the Euro runs over the past three days for the upcoming weekend. How many have a HECS? And I would even question whether the 00z today had one - it looks a little far east of the benchmark to me, but I could be wrong.

Look, I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying that at this point, it's silly to accuse people who are being realistic (and representing what the models are really saying up to now) as being negative. Is it something to watch and could it change? Yes.

2 hours ago, Greg g said:

Thank you for your input and insight.. so much better than “it’s terrible” “it’s all over” doom and gloom posts that we see all the time 

They're not doom and gloom. They're realistic. People love to wish for snow and are disappointed with reality. Right now, Both the GFS and the Euro are OTS and although the Euro has been closer, they both kinda have been for a while. Could that change? Sure. But up to now, they are OTS.

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I asked the same thing.

There is a disconnect somewhere

Some Met named Mike Masco has been tweeting about CAD and saying that the models aren't picking it up.

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

They had a foot of rain here in the past month. I dont buy it...power came back for now thankfully. 

We get power hits here in Tarrytown all the time from heavy rain. They last typically a few seconds or at most a few hours. But they happen repeatedly. It's almost like there's a ConEd box somewhere that water leaks into.

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Imagine the ordinary ridge or trough passing through is like one big bicycle tire, with asymmetrical spokes.  Each spoke represents a “wrinkle” in the atmosphere or Positive Vorticity Advection (PVC).  The ridge or trough will rotate the various PVC areas through your area.

On a hot dry day, with no PVC, a thunderstorm can still form due to hot rising air, but will normally be localized and short lived.  On a hot humid day, a thunderstorm can form, but will still likely be localized and short lived.  When a “spoke” of PVC rotates through, this can spark several scattered thunderstorms, as it feeds more upper level dynamics.  Of course a larger area of PVC has the potential to set off widespread areas of thunderstorms.  And if the you get enough crossing/merging of different layers of various pressures, temperatures, etc. (in the atmosphere) you can get the severe types of supercells.  The more upper level support, the less likely the lack of sun or marine air will affect the thunderstorm development.

Thank you.

So is PVC an upper level feature? Mid-level feature? Talking ridges and troughs makes me think upper level.

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Practice for the winter

People already calling a storm a bust before it starts

vs. those who wishcast.

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

They're not weenie posts. They're posts based on current radar observations and model pattern changes.

I think I grasp the concept that T-Storms, when they approach the coast, often encounter marine air and lose their intensity. We also know that T-Storms normally lose their intensity later in the evening when daytime heating is lost. 

But these concepts don't always hold true. Sometimes, T-Storms do not lose their intensity as they move from west to east closer to the Atlantic or Long Island Sound. And sometimes (albeit rarely), they do not lose their intensity diurnally. Can someone explain in both cases, why? What are the dynamics responsible for situations where T-Storms don't lose their intensity as they approach the coast or during the night?

Thanks in advance.

4 hours ago, Hc7 said:

I dunno why you say that as if the eye is making landfall right now, its still roughly 100+ miles out to sea and still has somewhat of a NNW heading, theres still at least 4-5 more hours for it to continue drifting and the eye can still totally clip the eastern part of the Island. Either way its pretty much irrelevant whether the eye barely misses the island by a mile completely or whether it landfalls 10 miles into the east end, the outcome and impact for a majority of the island will be nearly the exact same. Henri is still going to cause widespread, significant problems for the area. How far west it drifted had much more of an impact on the CT/Mass/RI area than it did LI.

Any tropical system or storm of significance is going to create significant issues for the area going out for some number of miles from the center. There were models (and media) that were forecasting the center to make landfall anywhere from NYC to central Nassau to central Suffolk to Montauk. Hurricane basics: the top-right quadrant is the most dangerous. In this case, the further west the center WOULD have made landfall (theoretically), the more significant the issues would have been for the area in and east of the center, and the further west (theoretically) the issues would have been. I'm not sure that it's accurate to imply that whether the center would have made landfall on the south shore and where wouldn't really have made much of a difference. Especially if Henri had turned out to be a stronger storm. 

3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Really? I actually think it’s a very strong model under 48 hours but not sure what the statistics show. 

Usually overdoes QPF pretty consistently even within 48 hours from what I remember.

Tarrytown. 7" with moderate snow/mixing at times with sleet.

11 hours ago, wkd said:

Loads of posters were saying it couldn't hit NJ because of climo, disregarding the fact that a large blocking ridge negated an ots solution.

Understood. But you can't just throw away climo. You just USE climo as with any other forcasting element ... as something to factor in but with probabilities or not at 100% guarantees.

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People who keep talking about climo  should have thrown it out the window when Sandy hit.

Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Ukie are similar 

Yep, and the 00z GFS keeps it west of NYC.

The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.

Having checked the latest GFS, Euro, HWRF, GFS-Para ... they all look to me like they have shifted even moreso west for Tuesday. Almost looks like if this pans out, the heaviest precip may end up NYC and NW of NYC. Any mets out there who can comment?

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the gfs is one of the last models i'd use

Well to me (novice), the 00z Euro and the latest UKMET along with the CMC and the 06z HWRF all seem to be west when it approaches NYC and the 12z GFS is coming closer to them. In fact, unless I'm reading it wrong ... the GFS-para would now seem to be the outlier taking it a little further east.

Based on what I'm seeing at least as of now, I'm gonna guess that other than delays associated with wind/rain, I shouldn't have any trouble flying out of HPN around 4PM on Saturday?

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?