larrye

Tarrytown. 7" with moderate snow/mixing at times with sleet.

11 hours ago, wkd said:

Loads of posters were saying it couldn't hit NJ because of climo, disregarding the fact that a large blocking ridge negated an ots solution.

Understood. But you can't just throw away climo. You just USE climo as with any other forcasting element ... as something to factor in but with probabilities or not at 100% guarantees.

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People who keep talking about climo  should have thrown it out the window when Sandy hit.

Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?

So it would appear to me that the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 18z GFS-Para, 18z HWRF, 18z CMC all take the center west of NYC ... while the 12z Euro and 12z UKMET take it over or east of NYC. Any guess as to who wins? :-). Has big implications in terms of which parts of NYC get lots of QPF vs. wind impacts.

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Ukie are similar 

Yep, and the 00z GFS keeps it west of NYC.

The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.

Having checked the latest GFS, Euro, HWRF, GFS-Para ... they all look to me like they have shifted even moreso west for Tuesday. Almost looks like if this pans out, the heaviest precip may end up NYC and NW of NYC. Any mets out there who can comment?

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the gfs is one of the last models i'd use

Well to me (novice), the 00z Euro and the latest UKMET along with the CMC and the 06z HWRF all seem to be west when it approaches NYC and the 12z GFS is coming closer to them. In fact, unless I'm reading it wrong ... the GFS-para would now seem to be the outlier taking it a little further east.

48 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

If that were the case then why not have the warning all the way down to Miami which has a 1% chance of 64kt winds

Good question.

51 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Question for the Mets on this board:

 

I see on the NHC site that the probability of Hurricane force winds at West Palm Beach are less than 10%   and probably closer to 5% in Boca Raton based on the 3% chance in Ft Lauderdale. Why if the probability is so low is there still a Hurricane warning as far south as Boca Raton? It would seem to me that the warning is in conflict with their own data.. More importantly there is the " boy who cried wolf" factor where as maybe the next time when there really is a severe threat people will remember this one and ignore the warning  next time.

I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?

2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is absolutely unprecedented. We now have a hurricane, with a rapidly expanding and intense CDO, with all of the hot water along the full length of the Bahamas to go over before nearing Florida. There has never been a storm in my life that hit Hispaniola, and strengthened, nor a storm that just got off Hispaniola and is already intensifying and well organized. 

This situation just became a lot more serious, wherever it may go. 

What of the southwesterly shear that is forecast to interact with Isaias over the next couple of days?

Everyone still laughing at the GFS-Para? :-)

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

The storm is forecasted to be closest to Florida this weekend so if there is a return there it may be impacted. I thought all shuttle crews returned via California or Texas though. 

Used to be that way when NASA was running the show. Not sure how they are returning with Musk in charge.

Also seems to me that the 12z GFS has gone closer to the Euro ... putting it into the GOM by 165 hours (although crossing FL while the Euro has it through the FL Straits).

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All models shred this storm except for the  cmc.

I was gonna say that the 06z GFS seems to lose it, when it begins to recurve in the western Atlantic no?

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No problem. We’re here to discuss. I always have to add the caveat lol.

Thanks. Nice to know that there is someone here that encourages discussion and questions.

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Initially it was very robust with a strong hurricane, but has recently driven a weak 92L into the northern Caribbean before eventually dissipating. Not that it matters much right now. 

Agreed ... too far out. Was just curious.

I know it's 10 days out, but what does the ECMWF say about 92L? I get it on Tropical Tidbits out to 240 hrs, but with 1-day increments and no view of the Atlantic, it's a bit difficult to figure out what it's doing with the storm.

Based on what I'm seeing at least as of now, I'm gonna guess that other than delays associated with wind/rain, I shouldn't have any trouble flying out of HPN around 4PM on Saturday?

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

So when is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I just looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

This forum (and its former) have a history of people making claims of absolutes, all in the name of pushing back against wishcasting. One only needs to read the first few pages of nearly every single winter month thread going back a decade to find “the season is over”, “the pattern doesnt support snow”, etc...and yet here we are, with one of our snowiest decades in a long time. While the wishcasting and snow goggles are incredibly annoying, some of us find the posts by supposedly intelligent people who are only here to troll or try to be first to claim they had a bad pattern right much worse in the grand scheme of things. Especially when everyone here is supposedly of an age where acting like an asshole is typically frowned upon outside of ps4 games. 

Like I said, nothing wrong with posting any opinion ... snowy or not ... and why you have that opinion. I think it would just be appropriate to refrain from personalizing and from editorializing as a response to someone's opinion ... who may very well turn out to be right (or perhaps not).

It would be nice if those who hoping for more snow would refrain from chastising those who want to be realistic or perhaps even see more snow as unlikely. There is nothing wrong with wanting snow ... I think we all do to one degree or another and there is nothing wrong with having an opinion and stating it here with backup. But weather forecasting is not an exact science yet and there are always going to be those here with differing opinions because there is some subjectivity to all of this. I think it would be helpful to refrain from accusing those who don't see it as as snowy an event as being negative. In this case, it would appear that they turned out to be right. 

1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Where are u getting these #s lol. Not 931 by any means

It has a 931 next to it. I didn't mean to imply that it was 931mb.

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Larrye the diagram Doorman posted has edit here = the L's and X's near 66 -- 44  and it says redeveloping---- NO WHERE near Cape Cod so can you explain what Doorman meant without bashing the new guy ? Thanks

You see the 931 Low? That's hundreds of miles off the coast of Cape Cod.