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Posts posted by larrye

  1. So it would appear to me that the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 18z GFS-Para, 18z HWRF, 18z CMC all take the center west of NYC ... while the 12z Euro and 12z UKMET take it over or east of NYC. Any guess as to who wins? :-). Has big implications in terms of which parts of NYC get lots of QPF vs. wind impacts.

    • Like 1

  2. 51 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

    Question for the Mets on this board:


    I see on the NHC site that the probability of Hurricane force winds at West Palm Beach are less than 10%   and probably closer to 5% in Boca Raton based on the 3% chance in Ft Lauderdale. Why if the probability is so low is there still a Hurricane warning as far south as Boca Raton? It would seem to me that the warning is in conflict with their own data.. More importantly there is the " boy who cried wolf" factor where as maybe the next time when there really is a severe threat people will remember this one and ignore the warning  next time.

    I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?

  3. 2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

    This is absolutely unprecedented. We now have a hurricane, with a rapidly expanding and intense CDO, with all of the hot water along the full length of the Bahamas to go over before nearing Florida. There has never been a storm in my life that hit Hispaniola, and strengthened, nor a storm that just got off Hispaniola and is already intensifying and well organized. 

    This situation just became a lot more serious, wherever it may go. 

    What of the southwesterly shear that is forecast to interact with Isaias over the next couple of days?

    • Like 1

  4. Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

    The storm is forecasted to be closest to Florida this weekend so if there is a return there it may be impacted. I thought all shuttle crews returned via California or Texas though. 

    Used to be that way when NASA was running the show. Not sure how they are returning with Musk in charge.

  5. 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Initially it was very robust with a strong hurricane, but has recently driven a weak 92L into the northern Caribbean before eventually dissipating. Not that it matters much right now. 

    Agreed ... too far out. Was just curious.

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  6. I know it's 10 days out, but what does the ECMWF say about 92L? I get it on Tropical Tidbits out to 240 hrs, but with 1-day increments and no view of the Atlantic, it's a bit difficult to figure out what it's doing with the storm.

  7. So when is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I just looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

  8. 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

    This forum (and its former) have a history of people making claims of absolutes, all in the name of pushing back against wishcasting. One only needs to read the first few pages of nearly every single winter month thread going back a decade to find “the season is over”, “the pattern doesnt support snow”, etc...and yet here we are, with one of our snowiest decades in a long time. While the wishcasting and snow goggles are incredibly annoying, some of us find the posts by supposedly intelligent people who are only here to troll or try to be first to claim they had a bad pattern right much worse in the grand scheme of things. Especially when everyone here is supposedly of an age where acting like an asshole is typically frowned upon outside of ps4 games. 

    Like I said, nothing wrong with posting any opinion ... snowy or not ... and why you have that opinion. I think it would just be appropriate to refrain from personalizing and from editorializing as a response to someone's opinion ... who may very well turn out to be right (or perhaps not).

  9. It would be nice if those who hoping for more snow would refrain from chastising those who want to be realistic or perhaps even see more snow as unlikely. There is nothing wrong with wanting snow ... I think we all do to one degree or another and there is nothing wrong with having an opinion and stating it here with backup. But weather forecasting is not an exact science yet and there are always going to be those here with differing opinions because there is some subjectivity to all of this. I think it would be helpful to refrain from accusing those who don't see it as as snowy an event as being negative. In this case, it would appear that they turned out to be right. 

    • Like 1

  10. 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

    Larrye the diagram Doorman posted has edit here = the L's and X's near 66 -- 44  and it says redeveloping---- NO WHERE near Cape Cod so can you explain what Doorman meant without bashing the new guy ? Thanks

    You see the 931 Low? That's hundreds of miles off the coast of Cape Cod.