Chicago Storm

Likely would be some sort of severe potential with it, just glancing at a few things. .

temperature wise, you’re correct in that it hasn’t been too abnormal as of yet. november had a -1.0° temperature departure. december obviously has started mild, with a +9.4° departure over the first 5 days. that will get kicked down over the next few days, before going back up once again. so we’ll see how that goes with time. overall so far it has been cooler east and warmer west since early november. what is abnormal is snowfall and precipitation. things have been fairly dry and snow-less across a large portion of the region thus far since early november. .

if you’ve been following for that long, you know the increased model struggles the past few years, as well as the difficulty to get into and/or hold a favorable pattern in the winter. and in the case of the current situation, the pattern is not supportive of anything more than a thread the needle situation. .

anyone that has done that probably should stop talking about the long term, because clearly they don’t know what they’re talking about. we have been in about three or so different patterns across november and now into december, and none have them ever looked favorable for anywhere other than MN/WI/MI. .

does this mean what happens after tuesday is the gradual step up towards spring? .

some of you are in denial. .

The shift towards positive tilt junk has been significant the last day or two. So unless that potential comes back, or Thursdays event up north in MN/WI/MI ends up further south, it might be about time to ring the futility bells. .

Your expectations are unrealistic. November just ended, and it was a top 20 snowy November for Detroit…which featured a 4”+ event. .

Repost from several days back, but we are about to enter the top 10… .

The signal is strong, and is well supported by ENS, longer range guidance and teleconnections. As it stands now, the pattern through mid-month is not supportive for anything more than maybe a thread the needle type setup or so. …But we’ve already seen one of those vanish for early this upcoming week.

-PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO will do that to ya. .

Pretty sure SE. MI has already had two snow events, and the Detroit area is already up to 6-8” on the season through the end of November. .

An ENS temp plot 240hrs out is useless. You’d need to look at the temp anomaly plot. .

i’m not saying that it will, but definitely not out of the cards.

Driest Novembers On Record: 1. 0.31” - 1904 2. 0.33” - 1914 3. 0.34” - 1903 4. 0.44” - 1999 5. 0.55” - 1976 6. 0.56” - 1917 7. 0.68” - 1933 8. 0.71” - 2021 9. 0.75” - 1875 10. 0.83” - 1878 Warmest Falls On Record: 1. 60.0° - 1931 2. 59.1° - 1963 3. 58.2° - 1971 4. 57.8° - 2016 5. 57.2° - 1953 5. 57.2° - 1922 7. 57.1° - 1920 8. 56.8° - 2021 8. 56.8° - 1927 8. 56.8° - 1914 .

I wouldn’t go there yet. .

not me, tsnow matty did. happened about a year and a half ago.

that is a classic terrible accuwx map. .

you’re not part of this sub-forum anymore, being in denver and all. the golden days are over. probably should wait for the to actually go - too for your mountain snow.

There’s not much to discuss right now. The pattern has been and will continue to be only favorable for portions of MN/WI/MI, through mid-month. The only exception appears to be the storm potential centered around next Tuesday. A dip to a brief -EPO this weekend with a PV lobe briefly moving into Canada, coupled with the trough moving into the West in a favorable fashion via the -PNA, could lead to a thread the needle type widespread potential then. But outside of that, things still look DOA and more mild for most areas (Minus the areas I mentioned at the start). .

logged in and ready2b disappointed.

December is a nice time to start a new streak.

The Euro weeklies have not handled things very well this month, as they have been too cold and snowy for much of the sub-forum in their medium to long range. (The exception being northern sub-form in parts of MN/WI/MI, where things have panned out). The CFS has had its share of significant issues handling things as well.

One thing to watch for going forward is how ENS handle teleconnections. Long to even mid range ENS have kind of been not the best this season so far, with them breaking less + or less - as the short term approaches. .

Depends on how everything else pans out. Upcoming patterned paired with phase 7 would still be a MN/WI/MI/Canada pattern (N Plains too). .