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Upper Level LOL

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Everything posted by Upper Level LOL

  1. Upper Level LOL
    Exhibit A in why chasing in Dixie is so hard
  2. Upper Level LOL
    Well that's about as strong a watch as you can issue, my goodness. Stay safe y'all. High precip, low cloud bases, screaming storm movement....ugh
  3. Upper Level LOL
    Wonder how high the probabilities on that watch will be
  4. Upper Level LOL
    Stuff kicking off already, gotta get the watch up soon I think
  5. Upper Level LOL
    No, it'd imply that since 2011 no other event has had this sort of a setup. That's what the word "since" means.
  6. Upper Level LOL
    Well there's the main event
  7. Upper Level LOL
    Ugh, so we can cross “cloudy warm sector” off the list of possible failure modes, and early soundings show a decent EML. Things are sadly falling into place to make today significant.
  8. Upper Level LOL
    TorCon isn’t exactly the most, uh, robust tool to use
  9. Upper Level LOL
    Oh I agree Wednesday is a super serious threat. I was just more highlighting that Albedoman’s jeremiad about EF4-EF5s this far out is kinda irresponsible (and his definition of tornado emergencies is incomplete).
  10. Upper Level LOL
    Doesn’t matter how messy the mode is when the LCLs are scraping the ground and sheer is high, especially once the LLJ kicks in after dark
  11. Upper Level LOL
    This is needlessly scaremongering and doesn't fit the parameters we see. We're going to see a lot of low-end tornadoes since the warm sector has essentially no cap. This will prevent bigger storms from firing. The threat of tomorrow aren't EF4-EF5s, but a firehose of EF2's and EF3's. I hope your reputation among your friends and family doesn't suffer from crying wolf about this.
  12. Upper Level LOL
    The day 2 disco from earlier today mentioned that if models remained consistent they'd pull a 06z Day 1 high risk. I think they get there, just wonder where they draw the bullseye.
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