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Upper Level LOL

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Everything posted by Upper Level LOL

  1. Upper Level LOL
    Exhibit A in why chasing in Dixie is so hard
  2. Upper Level LOL
    Well that's about as strong a watch as you can issue, my goodness. Stay safe y'all. High precip, low cloud bases, screaming storm movement....ugh
  3. Upper Level LOL
    Wonder how high the probabilities on that watch will be
  4. Upper Level LOL
    Stuff kicking off already, gotta get the watch up soon I think
  5. Upper Level LOL
    No, it'd imply that since 2011 no other event has had this sort of a setup. That's what the word "since" means.
  6. Upper Level LOL
    Well there's the main event
  7. Upper Level LOL
    Ugh, so we can cross “cloudy warm sector” off the list of possible failure modes, and early soundings show a decent EML. Things are sadly falling into place to make today significant.
  8. Upper Level LOL
    TorCon isn’t exactly the most, uh, robust tool to use
  9. Upper Level LOL
    Oh I agree Wednesday is a super serious threat. I was just more highlighting that Albedoman’s jeremiad about EF4-EF5s this far out is kinda irresponsible (and his definition of tornado emergencies is incomplete).
  10. Upper Level LOL
    Doesn’t matter how messy the mode is when the LCLs are scraping the ground and sheer is high, especially once the LLJ kicks in after dark
  11. Upper Level LOL
    This is needlessly scaremongering and doesn't fit the parameters we see. We're going to see a lot of low-end tornadoes since the warm sector has essentially no cap. This will prevent bigger storms from firing. The threat of tomorrow aren't EF4-EF5s, but a firehose of EF2's and EF3's. I hope your reputation among your friends and family doesn't suffer from crying wolf about this.
  12. Upper Level LOL
    The day 2 disco from earlier today mentioned that if models remained consistent they'd pull a 06z Day 1 high risk. I think they get there, just wonder where they draw the bullseye.
  13. Upper Level LOL
    Really surprised that's not PDS given the verbiage and the probs
  14. Upper Level LOL
    Using Comic Sans as a default font? Yeah, that's bad
  15. Upper Level LOL
    90/80 probs on that PDS Tornado Watch. Yeesh.
  16. Upper Level LOL
    Yeah a prolific nighttime QLCS is a definite possibility with this setup
  17. Upper Level LOL
    UH tracks =\= tornados, that's a pretty crude way to interpret that
  18. Upper Level LOL
    Good thread by good follow Tony Lyza on questions about the latest NAM run not initiating isolated supercellular convection. The start of the thread is here:
  19. Upper Level LOL
    Other than that though.....
  20. Upper Level LOL
    This is a convection contaminated sounding
  21. Upper Level LOL
    Given the verbiage of an outbreak of strong, violent, long-tracked tornadoes in the watches and outlooks, I don't see how you could objectively say this wasn't a bust
  22. Upper Level LOL
    The PDS tor watch had higher probs than the 2011 Alabama outbreak. The comparison is far from "foolish".
  23. Upper Level LOL
    Twins by Crescent, good grief
  24. Upper Level LOL
    The main show is gonna be these TX storms as they enter the OK atmosphere. If they can stay discrete/keep spacing, those are your long-track violent tornadoes that verify the high risk
  25. Upper Level LOL
    Good lord these cells are popping up fast
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