495weatherguy

On 11/30/2023 at 7:44 AM, SnoSki14 said:

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I know people hear terms like MJO, PDO, El Niño, La Niña, etc and it can get lost in the translation. So a simplified version is using the term marine heatwaves. These are just blobs of much normal than normal ocean temperatures. Unfortunately as the planet warms, most of the heat actually goes into the oceans. So we have many warm blobs in the tropical and subtropical oceans.

Since the Pacific is the largest body of water on the planet and lies just west of North America, it exerts a super sized influence on our weather. Thunderstorms gravitate to the areas of warmer waters. These create giant atmospheric waves which influence where the ridges and troughs will set up. Sometimes, we get standing waves that get stuck and drive more extreme patterns here of mostly warmth but on rare occasions cold.

Unfortunately, when the Central to Western Pacific basin is much warmer than other regions, the thunderstorms line up there. And thunderstorms in those regions drive warmer patterns for us. It also also been one of the fastest warming regions of the planet. So this is why people have been referring to La Niña background state. 

When the MJO is active like it is now in the warmer phases, it can take a longer time getting to cooler phases since the Western Pacific is so warm. The MJO numbers are just regions on a map where the thunderstorms are concentrating. Plus when you have convection firing in multi warm regions like we have now, it can come out more as a chord than an individual note. 

So all these factors in recent years have been conspiring to making the Pacific Jet stronger than average which in term floods North America with mild Pacific air like we are seeing this month and many other recent ones.
 

 

Thank you for the explanation!   

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not too much though or it's 2/5/10 all over again...

Hoping for this at the least

Prefer a winter like last though

Melville, Suffolk County

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That was on a different model-HRRR. The “bullseye” might really be anywhere in our sub forum but even if not there it looks to be a much bigger area of 2-3”+ rain. 

ok--appreciate the clarification--hoping the huge totals never materialize.

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

New UKMET has 10.5” rain at Islip, looks just like Aug 2014 again with amounts/distribution. Upton should really be issuing watches soon. 

Earlier you mentioned the big totals of rain were around Farmingdale/Bethpage; now it appears as though the "bullseye" is bit further east-Islip.  Would it be reasonable to assume that the "bullseye" can continue to move east and ultimately off shore?
 

3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Agreed.  It could 50-100 miles east or west, just have to watch radar as the storm unfolds.  Hopefully it happens out to sea, so no one has to deal with the flooding that would accompany those totals.

Amen!

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

On these models other than GFS, someone seems to get absolutely blasted. It seems like where it starts out gets blasted the worst but over the day it pivots east, so even on the NAM where NJ/upstate get the heaviest amounts, we all get 2-3” as the rain pivots east. I’m hoping the GFS has a clue. 

2-3" is suboptimal for sure, but its way better than half a foot of rain

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it

Understood-I hope it moves out to sea

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

No thank you. I’ll pray that’s wrong, otherwise it’s ark building time. 

100% agree with you-No one needs this.  That being said, how many times has the "bullseye" been correct on these types of storms?

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That shows 14-16” of rain over Bethpage/Farmingdale. That’s just insane. 

I pray that this precipitation moves out to the ocean and people and their property are spared this type of rain

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still going. Over a foot Nassau suffolk border

 

My goodness I hope this is incorrect.  No one needs that much rain.  Not good for anyone 

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gloria crushed Suffolk county. 

I grew up in East Williston, which is located in Nassau county-we were pummeled by the storm(Gloria).   Multiple trees and large limbs down.  

14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

After record snowfall this past winter, parts of the Rockies still have some 20-30 feet of snow. A lot of Memorial Day hiking and camping activities have been put on hold as many areas are still not passable.

rR

Thats amazing--July 4th Fireworks/Ski party?

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Saying every winter will be a snowless torch is equivalent to JB saying it'll be cold & snowy every season. 

Dead clock 

I respectfully disagree with your assessment.  He gives reasons for his predictions, unlike others who wishcast on here.  

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO this ends up like all the others since November. Huge -PNA trough out west dug into southern CA and the models underestimating the SE ridge. That RNA has been a semi-permanent staple the last 4 months and it’s not going anywhere. The models have been grossly underestimating the SE ridge and the -PNA only to have them get stronger as we move closer in time all winter long. They’ve also shown phantom -NAO’s and 50/50 lows/confluence in the long and medium range only for them to disappear. In fact, they had a phantom -NAO block for early-mid February on the long range runs back in mid-late January. They all disappeared. Color me very skeptical. Not saying it can’t happen but if I’m a betting man, I’ll take the under

You have been correct all winter-impressive!

6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I lived through it, that’s why I find the remarks on this board hilarious regarding our current situation.


.

True.  Those were tough times on Long Island.  The few times we did get storms always seemed to be during a school vacation or on the weekend.  

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

This is most of the 70's.80's and 90's. I think the youngsters on the board think the climate of NYC is the period from 2000-2017. It's not. 12 inch plus snowstorms became common. IN the 70's, 80's you'd be happy for 4 inches. That would be a lot.

I have said this many times before and been criticized

34 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Except for 78' just saying.

True.  1 year out of those 2 decades.  

22 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I remember crossing the bridges from Long Island and it would be like another world at times. No snow on Long Island but piles of snow and at least some snow on the ground as you got off the Island. This would happen most often in December.

You know what this means????

We are old!

19 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

Yes they were

I have said this for many years—I was always told that it’s really difficult for it to snow on Long Island and the coast.  The snow was always north and west.  The Tappan Zee bridge was usually a good divider.  The 2000’s and beyond have been incredible if you want snow.  People do not realize how fortunate they are to have experienced this.  

9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

 

How do you think us weenies felt in the 70s and 80s? Other than a few notable events the immediate metro area for skunked time and again. 

@Typhoon Tip Thanks for the reality check

Truth.  The 70’s and 80’s were a disappointment for those who wanted snow at the coast 

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Beginning to think the 50” and higher amounts of the 2000-2018 era was an anomaly that we were lucky enough to have experienced lol 

This

Especially for those who live on or near the coast.  

26 minutes ago, s2sailorlis said:

 born and raised in Buffalo.   if they can keep it under 3 feet they'll be fine!    was there for the Blizzard of '77.

go Bills!  lol.  

On your forecast, the amount expected goes up to 96 inches--Have never seen this

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And there’s the risk….-NAO but the PAC goes to hell with the Niña forcing (+EPO/-PNA)

Are you saying that December may be mild?