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understudyhero

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    Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, BristowWx said:

    I’m not sure I have ever seen that kind of statement …suggesting? The words Closed may be gone from OPM lexicon 

    Second time today.

    Originally the Government was to "close at 2pm", then without even changing the timestamp it changed to "federal employees are suggested to leave no later than 2pm"

    I am going to assume a crap ton of overworked HR people answering questions about if those hours are paid or not.

     

    Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

    Bruh, I’m not going anywhere and I’m a govie, already got “5” on it

    OPM already "called it" at "Status: Open - Suggesting 2 Hour Delayed Arrival - With Option for Unscheduled Leave or Unscheduled Telework. Given critical work being done across the federal government, please consult with your agency for final guidance."

    Since WTOP and others don't have this, I am not even sure OPM knows HOW to close the government at this point.

     

    January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

    Light banding starting to form on radar in western PWC. No flakes currently in Montclair. No melting either :D

    Usually my blacktop drive way in Haymarket warms enough to loosen the last little bits of ice when shoveled.

    It stayed cold enough when I moved the car that was in the driveway whatever falling snow (from the car) touched the driveway that hadn't been exposed "to the sun" froze instantly to the newly vacated spot. 

    • Like 1

    July Discobs 2024

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

    The breeze has been great today, but dude...so sorry. Our HVAC has been going full-tilt boogie since, oh hell...10 a.m. this morning?? I can't remember when our chiller has stayed on for HOURS at a time...I'm getting a little worried.

    If we start having brownouts or full blackouts in this region due to power usage...we all gonna be suffering worse than when we lived through 2012 Derecho times.  :( 

    Got the dimming of the lights about ten minutes ago in Haymarket.

    • Sad 1

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

    I disagree with your last point. I’d much rather have a bunch of solid winters than a few great ones surrounded by dreg almost snowless years.  But that’s opinion. 
     

    The years aren’t arbitrary. I picked the last 8 years. I compared it to other low snow 8 year periods. Then projected how likely we would avoid the least snowy 10 years. None of that is arbitrary. The numbers are exactly what I said. 

    why 8?

    you're cherry picking. rolling averages is better or same-state weather patterns or or or ...

    Just picking bad periods to make your math works is an exercise in exclusion.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, psuhoffman said:

    1968-1977 BWI had 143.1”. Unless BWI gets more snow this year they will have 75.3” from 2017-2024. BWI would be 67.8” short of that 10 year period with 2 seasons to go. 

    Rolling average. The ten years ending with the year in question.

    Otherwise it's just arbitrary 10 years. 

    Look at the attached pic. That's snow totals by year ranked 1 to 132. notice we are getting BETTER with big total years to the right side (lowest points, most recent) compared to the left side where there is nothing in the circled area (highest ranking space). 

    Also notice the bad years are getting more frequent. What does that tell us?

    I don't know but I would rather live in the odds on the right side than that horrible period in the center/right without any big snows. (Which is in fact 68-77 roughly , just went and looked at the data)

    Screenshot 2024-02-27 at 20.49.05.png

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    10.3” is about 25% worse than the second worse 9 year period and yet you say it like it’s not that bad. 

    But it's also not 68" needed in the next two years to avoid being the worse 10 year period ever.

    it's 56", and 57" makes us the second worse.

    We do need 69" to make it up to the third worse 10 year streak though (from second worse).

    More random facts : if you average our "place" in winters for 10 years as well (the worst being last year at 132nd), we are average 80.8. If you look at the year before the #1 (1996) we were 81.3 average (1995). 

     

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    @brooklynwx99 I just ran the numbers again...this is what I'm talking about...

    For BWI the last 8 years have been the least snowy and not by a little...but an exponentially ridiculous margin over the next least snowy period.

    From 2016/17 to 2023/24 BWI has had 75.3" or an avg of 9.4" per season over that 8 years.  

    The previous least snowy 8 year period was 1950 to 1957 with 99.5".

    This period is 24% less snowy than the next least snowy period!  That is crazy ridiculous.  

    But here is the really crazy part...its about to be sooooo much worse because all our previous snowless periods didn't last past 8 years...they were all bookended by very snowy periods.  So you say we need more time...I don't think so, things are about to get crazy stupid soon if we dont get a 40" type season right quick.  

    For example...BWI needs 44.4" next winter just to avoid it being the least snowy 9 years ever. 

    But it gets even worse....over the next 2 years BWI would need 68" to avoid it becoming the least snowy 10 years EVER!...  think of that...we need 68" in the next 2 years...not for it to become average, or just bad...but simply to not have it be the least snowy 10 years EVER.   

     

    And it gets even worse after that...BWI needs to avg 37" over the next 3 years to avoid the worst 11 years ever...and it goes on and on.

    The bottom line is...its very likely we are NEVER digging out of this.  We have fallen so far below the bar of all previous low snowfall periods that its unlikely we ever recover and get out of the red...and this does become the "least snowy 10, 12, 15...years ever going forward because it would take the kind of 1960s stretch to avoid it that likely just isnt possible anymore in todays climate.  

    So no...I do think we have enough data to say.  

    Last year screws with that rolling 8 year average.

    Prior to last year we were ~15" average, those single digit years hurt no matter when they hit.

    If we got 15" next year (the average prior to the shut out year) we would be up 10.3 (almost a full inch up) on your eight year rolling average.

    Edit: I think your math might be off. 56" in 2024+ 2025 would bring us to 1968-1977 on a rolling ten year average (meaning average snow per year over a ten year period) and ~132" total over each of the ten year periods.

    • Like 1

    Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

    i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

    I am. I honestly get exceptionally depressed when there is no cold or snow, and rain is the only thing that kind'a makes that better. I know I live in exactly the wrong place on this planet where we get teased with perfection (feb 2010) and then usually trend more towards last winter.

    If I can't have three feet of snow on the ground at all times, I want no stop drizzle for months on end.

    • Like 4
    • Confused 1
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