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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 956 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 1045 AM EDT * AT 950 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

not the main show yet but new watch URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 810 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 810 AM UNTIL 200 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. \DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN MS THROUGH NRN AL ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

clear pockets in between the complexes over TN and breaks in tghe clouds ahead of the first one expect new development over LA soon and move into central MS then AL

storms over N MS now becoming almost surface based and now TOR warned.. old complex may move into VA/ NC/SC later as airmass destabilzes as they cross the mountains OH valley may have a few tornadoes... then the big show over MS/AL later This is very april 3-4 1974 like in that regard, with possible multiple bands of storms producing tornadoes at the same time new RUC has the best paramters I ever recall seeing even at 20% reduction again we have to add on the stuff from yesterday evening and over night too

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NE MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...NW GA...SE TN... ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM NRN/CENTRAL MS TO SRN AL...NW GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN SC...WRN NC...WRN VA...AND ERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND NY... --DANGEROUS TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION-- ..SYNOPSIS AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT 500 MB JET WILL PIVOT EWD FROM TX/OK THIS MORNING TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE NEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM WRN AR THIS MORNING TO WRN KY/SRN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND REMNANT DRYLINE FEATURE WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND AN INFLUX OF RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF FAST-MOVING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ..MS/AL/TN/KY/GA AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF AN INTENSE OVERNIGHT MCS /INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ IS WEAKENING OVER NE AL AND MIDDLE TN AS OF SUNRISE. OTHER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY TO THE W FROM NE LA INTO SE AR/NRN MS. SOME FORM OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SPREADING ENEWD OVER NRN MS INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN. S OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER MS/AL MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL RECOVER QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. A RESERVOIR OF 70-72 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM SRN LA TO SRN AL WILL SPREAD NWD IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME SPREADING EWD FROM TX/LA. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500-4000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS E OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CHARACTERIZED BY LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600 M2/S2 IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL HOURS OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...AND INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR...THE SCENARIO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE INTENSE/DAMAGING TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. ..AR NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TODAY ALONG THE PATH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SE. STILL...ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLUSTERS IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. ..UPPER OH VALLEY TONIGHT THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE AND STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/27/2011

The Tornado outbreak of april 26-27th continures and will likely all day..with rounds of tornadic storms. for those of you just waking up things went nuts over MS last night,, about 70 tornado warnings issued since midnight several supercells formed within the heavy precip field with many confrimed tornadoes..many towns got hit..damage reports still flowing in...injuries reported,,mobile home parks hit one supercell was insane with extreme couplet and hurricane like eye with strong north and south feeder bands with storm motions of 60-70mPH this was at about 3am..not good the tornado count will really rise as many damage reported now listed as wind damage say possible tornado

This April 26-27, 20011 outbreak may have tornadoes then the superoutbreak, but of course if you take the superoutbreak and out in todays world there would likley be closer to 225 tornadoes then 148 There was a 36 hour outbreak that actually had more then the 148 a few years ago..the date escapes me at this moment but that was out over the open plains in this case coming up only luck will keep the death toll out of the dozens a silver lining of all the outbreaks latley is that people may be paying more attention

freak.. north system has 1000 CApE to work with..south 3000

I just started a new thread for monday as you were typing that.. I don';t care..delete it if you wish http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17617-monday-april-25th/

12z NAM coming a little more NW for Mondays event..but cloudy/rainy warm sector..still cape around 1500 looks decent perhaps keep this thread for monday..but then spin one off for tuesday and/or weds? also nam a little more se for weds at 12z

Memphis NWS for WEDS SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.

18z gfs much stronger with the monday low 994 mb in western MO by 00z tuesday and aorund 991 in western IL by 06z puts STL in corsshairs again

12z gfs holy moly

may 2003 had 543 tornadoes, a record I do believe the top 10 are all May or June I'm not sure what the monthy record is for april..but we may smash that if trends continue