SteveVa

Newest AKQ forecast package. I expect the stripe of maximum accumulations to slowly migrate NW if the trends continue.

Had nice bay effect snow showers this morning, it has managed to put down a nice dusting. About the Wed/Thu coastal, I'm trying not to get carried away. A few more steps west and it'll be a sleetfest for VB. AKQ still holding onto rain/snow mix until Thu 6z.

Chesapeake Bay effect snow is possible again tonight into tomorrow morning. 850s should plummet close to -20 degrees celsius with some persistent N-NNW wind. Boundary layer will likely be too dry and prevent any accums, but I'll take mood flakes as the ball drops. EPS mean is about 2", which is not too bad but it's likely skewed by a couple of big dogs. 12z GFS is just coming out and did a slight jump west with both precip and SLP. Verbatim still a non event W of I-95.

22 degrees in Virginia Beach and flurries! There is a very light dusting so far, let's keep this Chesapeake bay streamer going.

Nice light event at KECG! Only saw a brief snow shower up here in Va Beach today. AKQ mentions the possibility for some Bay effect snow in VB and Norfolk, wouldn't surprise me due to strong northerly flow. Let's reel in 0.5" from the streamers lol 35/28

In the short time I have lived in AKQ CWA, I noticed that they usually go pretty conservative. Smart play, since it will most likely be a minor impact event if it happens so it's easier to catch up with the forecast overnight if real time obs actually support the idea. Interesting that MHX issued WWA's.

It sounds bad, but when the attitudes are somber across the board it can mean we are still in the game. We're at the edge of both forums and usually what works for us doesn't work for anyone else. The Wednesday wave looks more amped on 18z runs of both the NAM and the RGEM. Euro is still hinting at some more development too. Coupled with decent early morning timing, I can definitely see that becoming a 1-3" event for NE NC and SE VA. Friday event is suppressed, but there. I believe we're still in a good place, and at this point I'd rather be hoping for a NW/more amplified trend than for the elusive SE trend. Edit: Frick off GFS, you won't sucker me in again. Shows a massive coastal Jan 1-2 that clobbers E NC and SE VA with a foot of powder. Then follows that up with lows approaching zero for the same area on Jan 3.

I still feel like we're in a good spot despite the flattening/suppression on the models yesterday. We saw what happened with the Dec 9 event

I'm staying up for the Euro again...this hobby makes me so unproductive in the winter 00z Canadian still looks good for the areas NW of the metro. It performed pretty good with the last event two weeks ago so I'll pay a bit more attention to it. 00z GFS went suppressed/flatter again for the first wave. I like that...keep it suppressed until 48-72 hrs out. What I really like about the upcoming pattern is that it's not a one shot deal. Cold is there and pac shortwaves are entering CONUS every 2-3 days. I firmly believe we're bound to get snow from at least one of them. EDIT: 00z Euro out to hr 126...flatter wave, looks good for a light event. I realized I don't have to do PBP because you can gauge the situation by the main MA thread. Usually we're happy when they aren't and vice versa - they're not happy about the Euro. Also, I take my words back...still snowing in Tidewater at 156. RIC metro gets fringed. This is it from me tonight, I won't ruin this nice run by waiting for the EPS to bring me back to reality lol

12z Euro...first wave bombs out off Ocean City, would be snow-rain-dryslot-back end flurries for Tidewater. Second wave looks better, seems like it will dig more at hr 180. Let's let it play out though

00z Euro brings the goods. First wave(Dec 29) amplified and verbatim yields a nice snowstorm for both metro areas. Not gonna look at the clown snowfall map, but it should be 6-10" area wide. Second wave (Dec 31/Jan 1) is also not bad. another 6-10" north of the NC/VA border. Now if this was 40 hours out instead of 140 and 240...

@RIC Airport I agree with everything you said. ORF is pretty similar to RDU as far as climo goes though. I wish there were more active members from our areas on the forum considering the population. Fun times ahead. EPS was very kind to us today. Hopefully we can continue the theme of weakening the SER and pushing systems farther south. This far east, I can't rely on CAD too much.

There are at least dozen members from the Hampton Roads area...at least from what I saw during the Jan 6-7 blizzard. They're just not that active when it's not snowing, I guess. We definitely "belong" to the SE forum, but sometimes I feel out of place since is mostly Central NC/Upstate SC/North GA centric. That's why I usually post in the MA forum. Hope they're gonna take us in as refugees In other news, a beautiful winter day today. Sunny, 47 degrees.

36 degrees and light rain. There was a burst of snow at the beginning, rates did overcome for a couple of minutes! lol Seems like lower Eastern Shore could pick up a coating as well as middle peninsula. If the moisture had tracked just 20-40 miles more south MBY would probably get a coating too. Onto tomorrow night's possible flurries...

So close, but so far! Temperature down to 39 here in Virginia Beach. I can confirm some frozen precip mixing in with the rain using the black jacket test

Fool me once, shame on NAM; fool me twice, shame on me. NAM comes in juicier and warmer. We'll see will it fail or score a coup.

There should be a "you've been NAM'd" button next to the like button 00z NAM out to 60, depicts nice cold rain

Agree. Verbatim snow totals are much better for our area this run (2-3" for Southside) I got warm nose'd back in Jan which slashed my totals in half. I don't like that we have to rely on dynamic cooling.

For folks in VA Beach...time to hug IBM's model! Courtesy of Michael Ventrice's tweet.

Winter is back, feels good. Been a long since we dissected 84hr NAM and threw around Icons, brazillian and australian models

The inevitable NW trend is doing me no good...losing hope I'll see flakes at all. Today's runs have been consistently trending warmer At least I'll get some rain, ORF only had about an inch of rain during Nov.

I'll take that trace amount

I was just alluding to only 3 posts in the past 12 hours, didn't mean to call anyone out New recon flight just took off, will be interesting to see if the NNW motion will continue...She almost crossed 73W

I know nobody cares about Maria anymore since she won't impact anyone else besides the OBX and maybe SE VA, but new vortex message has some interesting info. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:57ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307 Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 19Observation Number: 25A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 16:40:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 72°59'W (28.9N 72.9833W)B. Center Fix Location: 379 statute miles (610 km) to the NE (45°) from Nassau, Bahamas.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,603m (8,540ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 83kts (~ 95.5mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 86kts (From the NE at ~ 99.0mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) which was observed 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) from the flight level center at 11:50:00ZMaximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the N (6°) from the flight level center at 16:49:00ZDropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 3kts (From the W at 3mph

SSTs are fine. It'll probably stall on top of the Gulf stream and Jose moved farther east. Ocean temps imby are not even close to 60s, more like mid 70s.