BornAgain13

The UK was right much further west compared to 12z

37.9 here with what appears to be some wet flakes beginning to mix in with the rain...

38.5 here with light rain. Hoping it changes to snow soon....

GFS ain't bad for folks east

If the GFS comes in like the rgem and icon , you folks in the triangle might be back in the game...

So the ICON and RGEM say this ain't over... let's see what the GFS says...

RGEM holds serve, maybe even a tick NW....

Yeah the HRRR looks nothing like the Euro. Precip way east and off shore...

Folks, not saying it will happen, but we aren't out of this yet... I believe the 18z nam was a bad run... and hopefully the Euro is the beginning of better trends... yall know how things work around here, you can't get a good consensus until within 24-36 hrs...

18z Euro with a NW shift of the precip Shield. Hopefully this is the beginning to more NW shifts.

1 thing, the NAM has been inconsistent with this... I could see it trend back to what the rgem is showing at 18z

2 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

Has anyone seen the 18z RGEM!!!!

RGEM not to bad of a look but it still isn't their.

Everything we are all saying is summarized in 1 sentence...

"That escalated quickly."

Just now, burgertime said:

Storms will always take path of least resistance and that is some really cold air it has to fight to head north west. Without phasing to lift it the NAM looks right to my eyes. 

That cold and dry air is killing it....

Wow. I didn't expect the NAM to just completely whiff....

The 18z NAM just gave mby 1-2" with the front. I'll take that and run...

Lol, 18z NAM coming in with a good punch of snow with the front in southern VA... vastly different from 12z.

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Who is DT and where is his page?

https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/

Just read DT's update. He is in shock about how the models have trended and he even included that the Euro ain't no where near what it used to be and that it is dead.. its time we start recognizing the GFS I believe yall.

Anyone have the UKIE snow map?

Just my thinking for now...

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The track is pretty clear , my only question is, will their be more moisture on the NW side than what is currently being modeled? I know we've seen that before, not saying this is the case but maybe a professional can take a stab at that??

One thing is for sure... if this happens the way it is modeled now, I believe the GFS will score the coup...

2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

i mean not really..the areas that were expected to get the most precip havn't really changed.   

On the NW side...

Just now, PantherJustin said:

Does anyone else find it humorous…. Ppl that actually know what they’re doing still saying 1-4” all the way back to 321 area…. And 4-6” in Raleigh even after these runs yet this entire forum is in panic mode? I think this is a case of knowing too much for our own good…. Stop taking these computers as gospel positive or negative for your back yard…. 

I believe it's more so of the trend towards less and less precip...