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dj3

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Everything posted by dj3

  1. dj3
    Liking the trends from overnight. I see we've got the NAM back on our side with a nice little jackpot over Westmoreland county LOL.
  2. dj3
    Was thinking about both of these. For some reason I like where we sit. If dc is dealing with mixing issues I’d be pretty surprised if we didn’t get significant precip thrown back this way for a storm of this magnitude. Jan 2016 was a pretty sharp cut off north to south and this one appears more west to east.
  3. dj3
    Yep saw that with the low pressure panels as well!
  4. dj3
    From mid Atlantic forum...
  5. dj3
  6. dj3
    Rpm. Hug the model that gives us most haha
  7. dj3
    Rgem brought the heavy snow axis a little west from 12z as it looks like the low was more tucked.
  8. dj3
    Definitely a flatter look overall looping the last few runs at 500. Question is does it continue trending that way or has it finished correcting it's bias. I'd be happy if we could lock that up as the end result haha.
  9. dj3
    More in line with other guidance
  10. dj3
    Looks like it cut back pretty significantly on precipitation even though the low pressure was stronger.
  11. dj3
    I'm pretty surprised they are using temperature as an excuse to limit impact potential. Models look plenty cold enough and I would think even our best rates are looking to happen later afternoon - midnight?
  12. dj3
    EPS mean looks to be about 6 inches, slightly worse than the OP.
  13. dj3
    Hopefully the EURO and NAM aren't over-doing QPF amounts.
  14. dj3
    Although the snow maps didn't change much on the GFS, the 12z low placement does look further west so I think it is actually a step in the right direction.
  15. dj3
    So at this point EURO and NAM vs GFS/Canadian?
  16. dj3
    The NAM moved a little east from 6z and still threw a ton of precip back into western PA. Definitely encouraging to see the NAM and EURO a little more bullish on our chances.
  17. dj3
    Cut back a few inches from 6z but still ok. I was thinking how crazy it is that with all the info we have access to this one is actually still 72 hours out and could possibly shift a bit more either in our favor or the other way. The models have been remarkably consistent with this one so far
  18. dj3
    Either way it’s nice to be tracking when there was a lot of doom and gloom in winter outlooks.
  19. dj3
    The snow maps remind me a lot of January 2016 which was also a pretty painful cut off for us. The negative NAO is something we root for but it would be more helpful if there was a strong primary running up into the Ohio valley before transferring.
  20. dj3
    Definitely frustrating but I’m hoping the western edge of the precip expands a little closer to go time. We won’t be getting jackpotted but I’d take another significant snowfall in December.
  21. dj3
    Thanks for the analysis MAG! You look to be in a better spot for this one, hoping you guys in central PA cash in big
  22. dj3
  23. dj3
    The eps maps Weatherwill posted in the ma forum actually look the best they have so far. Quite a few west members in there that give western pa a direct hit
  24. dj3
    Yea after several runs in the right direction that has us on the losing end of a brutal cutoff.
  25. dj3
    What a monster look for central pa. Hopefully we can get the precip shield to continue to expand and throw some good snows back our way.
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