dj3

@KPITSnowignore the gulf tap we got a clipper 

5 inches in oakmont. Hope everyone enjoys 

1 minute ago, TimB said:

And the ensemble mean is just as bad. Less than an inch over 16 days.

And its a recurring theme these past 2 winters. This isn't the only time its been a 1 glance per day at models, nothing happening, shut the blinds period. Wasn't December pretty similar for the most part?

14 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

this is me every single time i start the watching the run of the GFS and don't even see a fantasy storm. This pattern is rough. Hoping second half of February can bring something to cheer for. 

Anecdotal I'm sure but these last 2 winters seem so bad from a tracking perspective. I can't seem to recall ones this bad where its literally weeks at a time with nothing remotely trackable. Maybe going back to what KPIT mentioned as far as the slop storms being less numerous has some merit into the trackability aspect. I can recall years back where we would be tracking and eventually go from a few runs jacking us to a few messy inches. At least we were tracking for several days in those cases though. This is just brutal. 

https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/1746609253832344007?s=46&t=PQhvtES1jnuHEjACqYgYmw

Looks dangerous. Seems like a simple situation in stay home if you don’t feel safe. 

16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

lol you guys obviously haven’t been in a lake effect blizzard before. No synoptic snowstorm can compare 

I may have missed but every LES outbreak has happened to not coincide with a sporting event? I honestly have no clue but considering Buffalo Climo seems super rare. 

Play every game in a controlled environment which is the way sports are moving to anyway. Better than lying about snow hitting peoples face so hard that it’s dangerous like the local news is saying. 

Prayers for the sabres fans that made it to the game. It’s a joke they rescheduled. Say you got caught with your pants down where you hung the total and don’t want to risk a good team (Buffalo) getting knocked out in a shit show of a game. 

Awful. What a horrible waste. 2 cutters and everything after out to sea until our mild up. 

I'd prefer we trend in the direction of a more potent southern stream short wave for the 19-20th threat. We don't typically do well with Miller B's, those usually slam northeast of us. Overall, if we get minor accumulations from Tuesday and Friday I'll be pretty disappointed in wasting this NAO period without a big storm. I know that probably ruins the positive vibes from Today but I would think a NINO with a strong NAO block would be one of our best patters to cash in. 

No precipitation after the 2 monster cutter rainstorms this week would be cruel. But it has been consistently shown as an option with the PV dropping in and suppressing the STJ.

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This is easily the best snowstorm I’ve ever seen come from a straight cutter. Blue Knob Ski Resort claims a foot has fallen up there this morning.

My in laws in Johnstown are saying they have around 7 inches new. Sounds like this was pretty unexpected up that way? Either way nice to see some central PA brethren cash in. Slushy mess down in Pittsburgh early this AM but been all rain since 8 or so.

16 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Hopefully the WV stations update soon, to get a better idea what’s downstream. Specifically Wheeling and Parkersburg. 
The closest OH sites are still reporting no precip.  

It may depend on rates. If it starts lighter maybe a mix until heavier returns move in. We will see shortly I guess.

Interested to see if we start as snow or a mix. 30 here currently 

4 minutes ago, TimB said:

My in laws live in Warren and staying with them isn’t worth seeing snow (not with this storm obviously but in general).

That’s a good lake effect spot. Now I’m questioning you’re dedication to snow 

2 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

I am up at 7 springs and the NAM shows us getting hammered tomorrow afternoon. 

We had a good 7+” on New Year’s Eve last week.  

You guys need to come up here on these marginal events. 

I contemplated heading to the in laws in Johnstown earlier in the week. They’re in a much better spot but when the storm fizzled it didn’t seem like it was worth it. I think elevation will do well in this.

8 minutes ago, TimB said:

Someone help me understand the feud between @KPITSnow and @Rd9108. Seems the beef has been going on for years and years.

It’s a love hate relationship. All will be well when we cash in. 

Just now, Ahoff said:

So, the 3k NAM was pretty good, are you still on the edge?

Yea the 3k looks fine

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

There’s no reasoning with him.  Let him meltdown, like a toddler.  He’ll tire himself out and fall asleep, lol.

I know, I get his frustration but also think he’s being partially trolling. He’s a smart dude. Imagine being DC (whom he and Kpit hate) they went from a MECS to no chance. We’re bitching about riding the mix line on the short range models and regardless will still see some amount of snow 

1 minute ago, TimB said:

More than a bit if I have a heart attack.

We’ll be ok. The pattern looks good afterwards. I’ll be surprised if we don’t get to 30-35 by end of February 

Just now, TimB said:

It just sucks. A week into January and we’ve had 2.1” of snow.

I agree. I love early snow also. I’d prefer us to rake in December and January. Let’s take what we can get tomorrow and hope the PV dropping west of where the mid Atlantic prefers lets us cash in on something. 

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

That’s what’s upsetting. It’s the type of storm that would have NEVER produced a drop of rain 30 years ago.

And I don’t really disagree with you. Every time we’ve have a cutter this winter there’s a northwest flow behind the system and I’m getting snizzle instead of snow. It’s annoying. 

Just now, TimB said:

That’s what’s upsetting. It’s the type of storm that would have NEVER produced a drop of rain 30 years ago.

The storm is a POS compared to what was modeled 5 days ago. It would be a POS shit now or in 1992. 

I think we’ll get several hours of moderate snow tomorrow. If it is too warm to stick who cares. Let’s just try to get some snow flying 

Would you relax and wait til tomorrow morning