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Runman292

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    March 27-28 Severe Storms

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted 

    Mesoscale Discussion 0276
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

   Areas affected...Much of middle and eastern Tennessee into parts of
   southeastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271241Z - 271445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms will continue
   spreading across the Tennessee Valley toward the Cumberland Plateau
   through 11 AM to Noon EDT, with some potential to organize further
   and begin producing strong to perhaps occasionally severe wind
   gusts.  It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
   needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
   possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Consolidation and upscale growth of vigorous
   thunderstorm development continues across parts of the Mid South
   into Tennessee Valley region.  This is being supported by
   large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
   advection, beneath a zone of enhanced divergence aloft, which is
   forecast to continue spreading across the Tennessee Valley into the
   Cumberland Plateau through 15-16Z.

   This convection includes at least one area of increasing
   organization, with a possible evolving broad mesoscale cyclonic
   circulation near Nashville.  This still appears rooted above at
   least a shallow near-surface, potentially cool/stable layer, but mid
   60s+ F surface dew points have been surging toward the southern
   Tennessee state border area the past few hours.  Although cloud
   cover appears likely to slow boundary-layer insolation ahead of
   activity, it is possible that thermal advection and moistening could
   contribute to increasing boundary-layer instability as far north as
   the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern Tennessee within the next few
   hours.  If this occurs, a corridor with potential for strong to
   severe wind gusts could begin to develop by mid to late morning, in
   the presence of sheared, 30-50+ kt southwesterly to
   west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer.

    March 25, Thursday Severe Weather

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted 

    Mesoscale Discussion 0260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...northern GA...eastern TN...far western NC...extreme
   upstate SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252131Z - 252330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A risk for severe thunderstorms, including the threat for
   a couple of tornadoes, will likely develop over the next several
   hours across northern GA and eastern TN.  The risk will eventually
   spread east into parts of the far western Carolinas later this
   evening.  The timing of an eventual watch issuance is a bit
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broad rain shield across the
   southern Appalachians as of 2130 UTC.  A supercell over northwestern
   GA, on the southern flank of the rain shield, will continue to move
   east-northeast over northern GA the early evening hours.  The
   airmass across the southern Appalachians is currently
   rain-cooled/stable but a strong moisture flux/destabilization will
   likely occur during the evening hours.  The richer low-level
   moisture will likely reside across northern GA where lower 60s F
   dewpoints are currently observed/expected this evening.  In addition
   to hail/wind risks with a supercell threat gradually spreading
   northeastward into the area, a tornado or two is possible this
   evening/tonight.  For parts of southeast/eastern TN, the severe
   threat will likely depend on storm development from the
   west/southwest eventually moving into the region later this evening.
   The expected timing of the risk will likely be delayed but begin in
   a few hours.

    February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I recently sent a message to MRX on facebook asking about my neck of the woods (Oak Ridge). Here were their thoughts as of 3:30:

    It looks like you may see some mixed precipitation overnight which could be mainly snow at least briefly.  Could be an inch or two of snow for Oak Ridge, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty and it could end up being less.

    January 7 - 8 ULL potential

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

    It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today.

    I'm in Oak Ridge, and I can confirm that temperature. It's definitely cooler than what was forecasted. I saw a little over an inch for the Christmas Eve Storm. I'm hoping that I'll see more than that this go around.

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