SouthBuffaloSteve

52 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@SouthBuffaloSteve

Still showing up

These bands can be sneaky!  Had one like this back in Feb 2019 off the small area of open water off Long Point.  Just held over the metro on a W to E orientation for hours.  Near blizzard like and was not forecasted well. 

Wow… This just popped up in my photos from a year ago tab… holy smokes…

RGEM picking up on some sneaky lake effect Saturday evening?  This time of year with the west central basin iced over it can change the setup of the normal wind directions and target the metro a little more.  Hugs the ice free north shore east to west and into BUF.  

7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Playing in the snow pack was like a geological dig site.  Layer on top of layer.  The bottom layer was hard as rock, I don’t see much of the water content in this pack being lost with these brief warm ups.  It’s just going to condense down to and icy slush slop and be a ticking time bomb for a bigger warmup with rain.  Took a sample before any added rainfall this afternoon.  That top layer was juicy “af” pardon my French.  

Melted down to 3.1” liquid.  Turning into snow cone consistency…

Was bound to happen here sooner or later… 

To bad it falls apart before it reaches us…

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

No masks 

The way 99% of people wore them they didn’t do anything anyways.  

3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

lol seems like an interesting battle will brew in here. Im a big time snowpack guy and even with these brief warm ups the snowpack in WNY and GTA will be around for another 7-10 days minimum. Which historically has been when retaining snow on the ground starts to become difficult. 

March snow events where it snows 3-5" but gets blasted in the 28F and sun aren't interesting to me. So in the next few weeks I switch to big time rain events or big time 6-10" snow storms 

Wind Storm.  Real big March windstorm.  That ice getting pushed up the lake in BUF would be an amazing sight!

2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Oh okay so just the faulty always warm BUF temp sensor. SYR was probably close to BUF? 

:shrugs:

Playing in the snow pack was like a geological dig site.  Layer on top of layer.  The bottom layer was hard as rock, I don’t see much of the water content in this pack being lost with these brief warm ups.  It’s just going to condense down to and icy slush slop and be a ticking time bomb for a bigger warmup with rain.  Took a sample before any added rainfall this afternoon.  That top layer was juicy “af” pardon my French.  

end of CMC run showing some interest.  That 17-20ish time frame still bears some watching.  

7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It could be an epic flood if that were to happen.

Setup is there for flooding.  2.5-3” of SWE throughout the headwaters.  Very thick ice sheet on the creeks.  Mouth at the lake is frozen and I have not seen the cotter head out yet to ice break.  Rapid warmup and heavy rain would be a big concern.  But on a positive note haven’t had a good ice jam to chase in about 3 years now so bring it on!

24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Looks like our run of winter is coming to a crashing halt, at least if the GFS is to be used. Many warm weather lows the next 2 weeks putting us close to end of the month. It doesn’t go in our favor at that point. 

Still on the fence enough but def been trending the wrong way to keep winter going.  At least it’s looking to stay active.  Worst thing now would be a slow 2-3 week warmup slowly eating away at the pack.  If it’s gonna go let’s torch it with some heavy rain so I can go on ice jam crick watch!  

Hypnotic sky this morning…

Another nice looking day with plans to try a lake hike today… and there goes my Twitter feed again trying to tell me NO… ehhh walks in the forest are better in the winter anyways aren’t they?  

Oh lookie at that… Spectrum News model throwing down a lake effect band in the metro towards morning… cool… cool…

lets see what tonight runs bring.  boring 10 days on tap unless one these clippers can spin something up, but I think we flip back to cold and stormy after the 17th.  Good looks earlier on all that something will be brewing in the 17-23 time frame.  at least we dont look to torch over these next 10 days.  few warmer days in the mix but overall somewhat seasonal with chances for fresh coating 3-4 times in that period.   snow pack will take a good compression but should hold.    

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah there is a ton of open water and the offshore flow pushed all the ice back into lake away from shorelines today. I'm quite surprised with how cold its been that this lake isnt 100% frozen.

shes still holding on for one last big storm!

35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@SouthBuffaloSteve I'm going to take my post back, I don't think its safe after looking at this

https://www.facebook.com/100001516526387/videos/3200489203607922/

The immediate inner marinas and inlets are solid but out into the main lake itself I would not say it’s safe.  Spotted this gap yesterday in the ice as it was likely shifting.  

Couldn’t ask for a nicer winter day.  That sun was awesome today!  Took the kids sledding at the old Nike Base.  Perfect conditions!  

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think everything is 3-4" thick going out at least a few thousand feet. That ice looks to be south of here near the Dunkirk pier? But you can pretty safely ice skate now almost anywhere along the immediate shore line.

Yikes!

22 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m just shocked it was longer than ‘76-‘77

76/77 vs 00/01.  Total snow depth is not even close, but we maintained a continuous snow pack in 00/01 from Nov 19th - Feb 8th.  Never got that impressive in total depth but had a lot of staying power.   00/01 also saw a harsh March with 23 days of snow pack while 77 saw winter wrap up a few weeks sooner, which was likely the tipping point for total 1"+ days,  Wonder if you could assign a number metric to each winter based on the snow depth and duration it what was on the ground as a means to rank winter seasons by something other than total snowfall.  To me a memorable winter is one that see a snow pack stay maintained.  Might try and do a few more seasons and see what the number spreads would be and if they seemed to make sense.       

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Want to get out there and ice skate before a warm up. Its definitely thick enough to skate on

 

Where do you think you can find ice like that on Erie?  Are there really spots frozen that flat and clean?  My hike idea might have been a little ambitious trying to go all the way out to the break wall but shoreline walk def looks ok.

Sunset was lit tonight!  Was doing some scouting to see if a lake hike would be possible tomorrow morning but didn’t see anyone that far out this evening.  

46 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

‘99-‘00 had 114 days of 1” of snow OTG? That beat ‘76-‘77? Where was I…

Eye chart… that 114 days was 2000-2001.  Very active early lake effect season started in mid Nov and the snow cover held most of the winter.