snowcaine

Yeah I agree, honestly I just wanted one more 4"+ before the season wraps up. I'm more interested in the wind and blowing snow potential with this one than the snowfall amounts. I think we will need to get really lucky to be in the sweet spot for big amounts like that without precip issues affecting amounts. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ottawa and Montreal get hit harder.

18Z GFS does some wild stuff, I'm a bit skeptical of such an amplified solution. I'd feel more confident riding the 12Z ECMWF with a 5-6" call for most of Toronto. Wouldn't be surprised to see some precip issues with this one.

I think it stayed in effect due to the surprise model shift for the overnight into Friday period for some snow (RGEM had potentially 4")

Almost every single model had 4-8" falling during the commutes on Thursday into Friday. The special weather statement made sense IMO, it just didn't pan out. Models blew this one. Even ensemble prediction had a fairly high probability of 10+ cm. EC alerts based on vulnerability, not just amounts. 5-10 cm during rush hour in a major city has higher impacts than 15 cm on a weekend. The point is to alert people so that they can alter their behaviour (e.g. work from home on that day). Sometimes it doesn't pan out. I'm really frustrated with how the storm turned out also. I sure wasn't expecting barely 3" from the two waves.

A similar situation... about 3 times in the last 35 years

Looks like Toronto is on track to finish the first 6 months of 2019 without ever hitting 80 degrees

Yep ratios are very high with this one. I figured we'd be on the cold side of the prime denditic growth zone and get pixie dust as seems to be the case with clippers in these situations but not the case at all. 6-8" seems reasonable at this stage for most folks. Seems to be 3-5" across the GTA already.

I may be eating crow with this one. Impressive enhancement today

I'm just not seeing it for this system. Too much shear to really get good lake enhancement in my opinion. Should move through the area relatively quickly. I'd go with 3-5" for Toronto personally.

About 4-5 " fell here in midtown Toronto. We've got about 0.15" of ice accretion and it's really gusting.

I'd be shocked if we got less than 6". I'd go more for 7-11" come Wednesday morning

I have no idea what to expect here in Toronto. There are so many possible outcomes

Now reporting 5.9"

5" being reported at YYZ in Toronto. Looks like we could make a run for 9"

Toronto already at 4"

Already at 2" here in midtown Toronto from this lake enhancement. Incredible snow right now

Nice lake effect streamer just south of the GTA. Should drift north as winds veer from NE to E at the surface. At least we know the ingredients are there for lake effect.

Luckily for us nearly every model has a nice lake effect signature which guarantees some good ratios. But it should be offset by the pixie dust that I feared would be coming. Probably estimating 12:1 ratios on average should yield accurate totals. I'd go with 6-7" with locally higher amounts (8-9") for North parts of the GTA and Scarborough where I suspect that band will orient itself

Yeah I am not seeing any substantial movement on the NAM.

Storm total 3-4" across Toronto area. Just 40 miles south of here, reports of 16-22"

1.5" in Toronto so far. Snow has stopped for now. We really do have a talent for getting utterly screwed with every system. Our last >8" storm was 4 years ago. Our last >12" storm was 6 years ago.

2" call for Toronto

I feel like given Toronto's horrendous luck over the last 4 years, it's only fitting we get whiffed with 2"

I see a lot of people depending on the Kuchera ratio for this system. Here in Toronto the Kuchera ratio seems really overdone. I find when it's this cold it just ends up being pixie dust.

Ah man, I'm landing at YYZ Toronto/Pearson New Years evening. Hoping for no delays landing...