StormchaserChuck!

I'm liking this

Much colder on the west coast then.. high pressure dominates now

I think we are going full-fledged into El Nino, quickly here now

Somewhat worried about this configuration too

The same thing pretty much does appear so we'll see

It might be something created ontop of initial conditions.. but the N. Pacific pattern has been reverese-PNA since Jan 1 when the subsurface has been warm since Nov

Good post Ray.. AM/PM.. all (Sorry). You do know that ENSO subsurface > surface by 5sigmaSD's. 

8 days of June, rain in August, September and October

Yeah, what's the reason for them in the first place, they are significant event? Has anyone gotten to the bottom of it? 

9-11-1900

just kidding

It's been windy here something like 3/8 days.. clear days. no reason, just 20-25mph winds, like we used to have in the 90s. 

Aleutian low over water is just anomaly of the time.. El Nino signal is ~40-45N Low pressure (more in the Pacific and US of course). 

Winter after Dec 2010 established New +NPH pattern that would last until 15-16 El Nino, did this, it was warm in beginning (Dec 2021 similarity) 

Wow, CFS is good but variable. It's accuracy might be a product of money and energy traders baselining around it. I see it as outdated. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure that a strong el nino on average increases chances for cold, although it depends on the structure of it, of course.....higher end storms where you are, sure.

I think in theory they do, because of mid-latitude low pressure. 

As a global warming function, no

A lot of the Strong El Nino's in the early 1900s were cold country-wide, I think that's what I'm referring to. After satellites they started getting warmer in the north. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we go right to -EPO/+NAO for the Winter.. following the Dec 2010 -> happening. 13-14, 14-15 were +NAO/-EPO and sometimes time warps in these instances. We were very close in Jan,Feb 2022 to Jan,Feb 2011 etc. 

300dm, beat the #2 year in 75 years of 230dm. We did 360dm (vs 300dm I think this last December)

2011 is a pretty good Tropical analog.. we had record -PNA this December, and 2010 shattered that too, we followed that 2011, 2022 similarity through Jan,Feb. 

Lack of rainfall in Florida has something to do with it, I think. Watching the radar, it doesn't rain like it used to. sea-breeze fronts used to intersect middle of state. GOM SSTs

So to be real we are in kind of an uneven atmosphere- one layer vs another, and 2015-16 El Nino was within that and "given" a good Winter. It started I think ~2012-2013. I would say Strong El Nino is our only chance for major snow/cold, but in reality we need a +3.5-4.0 El Nino to even it out. We could be given blessings. 

Pretty. 

Not much instability but plenty of "pond-like" sit...

models really doing this alot.. 

I bet we see some kind of absolute mathematical value into the Winter months in Galveston. 

On 6/16/2022 at 7:51 AM, bluewave said:

Really interesting presentation on how climate change can generate these types of regional extremes. 

Love this.. everyone was talking about how the Gulf stream would slow down, but the Pacific Ocean circulation kind of did. 

Yeah, you'll keep doing this stuff especially in dry areas.