Lots of run to run variability with this one, small shifts will be the difference between rain, ice and snow for peeps in Northern Illinois and Southern MI
SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO-DRIVEN MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE MIDDAY DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
Just got a preliminary EF3 rating for Union City, and that's with the caveat that the nws could only access a small area of damage today due to most areas still being impassable.
Not one to crap on the spc but kinda baffled they didn't issue a watch. They've shown multiple times they're willing to issue one for lone supercells causing tornadoes but this time just didn't.