PhineasC

People are assuming the best case scenario in a marginal situation. Yes, it is possible that a wall of heavy snow will move in for a few hours, then change to heavy sleet for hours (a very rare event here), then change to ZR for hours, then dry slot. All at 31.5 degrees with strong warmth pushing up from the south and southwest. Yes, the models do sort of show this, but if you are near I-95 you need to tweak for climo, which says this will be disappointing. Personally, I think the first thing to bust will be the mega-rates. Those rarely materialize when we need them. We will waste the "thump" period and good temps on spotty crap.

A sleet period of hours and hours is not all that common around here. Areas near the metros will have rain mix in and take over earlier. It isn't going to bomb sleet for hours, IMO. That is a rare thing around here. This isn't New England. Maybe that stuff happens up there. I don't think calling for some snow, wintry mix for a little while, then mostly rain is a bold call for DCA, especially during the day with a lame airmass...

I hate to keep being a downer, but the surface isn't that cold near and in the cities. Moderate to heavy rain at 31.5 will not freeze anywhere well.

I think some of you guys don't realize 3 inches of sleet and .25 inches of real FZRA is more rare here than a foot of snow.

Why is that ridiculous? This airmass is not very cold and warmth follows the storm.

Sounds like the day after drinking a bunch of tequila and eating a huge Mexican dinner.

Dude, in DCA a big sleet storm is pretty anomalous. I am not going out on a limb saying the UHI hellscape will have more rain than expected. Is anyone here going to be surprised by pretty early reports from places like Alexandria of rain mixing in??

The GFS needs to come out to end this horrid NAM talk. FWIW, I thought it looked crappier than 12Z and 18Z. Tons and tons of cold rain. Best snows north into PA.

If MN Transplant is doing play-by-play, you know it's gonna be a meh run. He seems to enjoy providing the blow-by-blow breakdown of a storm falling apart and turning to rain.

LOL at the NAM analysis.

The max very clearly moved south out of PA into MD/VA.

I still think this whole deal is really tenuous. Without rates it is going to suck, and it’s very common for us to all hype big rates only for the radar to be spotty and weak for hours on end.

It only goes out to 48.

We are gonna get RGEM'ed by the time this storm gets here.

That surface map almost looks like some kind of glitch.

It's just reality. I'm as big a weenie as anyone.

Moderate rain at 31.5 degrees during the day will not be an ice storm unless you are in the deep woods.

Sleet for sure. I just don't see a ZR threat at all. It's gonna be mod/heavy rain at 31.5 degrees, at best. In DC, it'll be 34 degree rain and we all know that. If the thump fizzles out, this storm will be lame. We need to pray it comes in like a wall, but I could see it spitting with spotty precip for hours on end.

LOL at expecting ice in this setup. It's gonna be snow to sleet quickly to plain rain near the cities.

Euro seems pretty meh.

That’s the beer that Jesus drinks.

Yeah, Heineken is pretty much the worst mainstream beer out there. Such a lingering aftertaste too. Definitely a collection of perfumes and chemicals to approximate beer versus a beer itself.

18,000 of them are from PR years ago. This little exchange is boring. Clearly folks want to have party time in here tonight. Don't let me stop you. Adios.

I barely post. No clue why you have decided it's your job to police up the forum. If you want to throw a ton of weight behind the NAM, ICON, and horrid FV3, feel free to wax your shovel now.

I am clearly talking about right now and not a run from 10 hours ago.