GSP: Afternoon AFD
The concern through the period will be, of course, the amount of
moisture across the area. PWs will flirt with and at times exceed
record levels off and on through the period as surges of moisture
spread overhead. With the tropical airmass, lapse rates will not be
impressive even with the high moisture content and lower LCLs until
later in the period, and some low-level shear may enter the mix
Friday afternoon into Saturday. Any thunderstorms will of course
just enhance convective rainfall rates. 12z GFS is giving storm
total QPF (including the near/short term periods) through Monday 12z
of 5-6", mostly along the I-85 corridor in GA/SC and then up the
escarpment into NC. 00z ECMWF brings a max of over 8" through the
same time period, concentrated in the upslope areas of the SW
mountains, with widespread 3-4" elsewhere. Hopefully this will be
just a good soaking rain, with decent amounts each day but not an
overwhelming amount in any one 6-hr period, but as the totals
continue to pile up from the short term and into the extended, we
will have to monitor this closely.