frontranger8

4 weeks does not a season make. Let's see how August/September turn out. My guess is we will look back on spring/summer 2015 as more like 2013/14 than 2007-12. And the extent numbers will reflect that.

Maybe "by what year" would have been better wording, instead of "what year".

Bingo. Phillip thinks this year will top 2013. Bold...but not out of the realm of possibility.

1. The last month was easily the worst since 2012. However, if August goes how the Euro weeklies are indicating and is mostly -dipole, 2015 will go down as more similar to 2013/14. Only one month with +dipole. 2. I'm not saying 2007-12 was correlated to the AMO. Just that there is evidence of -AMO being better for the ice.

I'm in the camp that the 2007-12 period was more of an aberration than a "new normal". I don't believe the weather patterns that dominated those years are likely to return to the same extent any time soon, and the weather going forward will be more similar to 2013-15 than 2007-12. The long term trend continues down, but much slower than we saw 2007-12. There is some evidence that returning -AMO could slow down Arctic melt as well. Therefore, I think another year in the next few years could easily surpass 2013. And it will take a return to sustained +dipole patterns to see something below 2012. Eventually, I think the long term trend will win out, and that happens some time in the early 2020s. But then we could easily see a big bounce back again, temporarily.

Sweet.

How about this poll? Will we next see a min (NSIDC) that: 1) is below 2012 or 2) is above 2013

What's the update on the big island? Quiet thread.