vwgrrc
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Everything posted by vwgrrc
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Yes. interestingly it should be dry for a few hours but that's not the case now. North DFW here. Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk
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snow or sleet? I feel it's probably more sleet Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk
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Is it just me or 0z seems coming with an increased amount during the day tomorrow for DFW? Basically AFD mentioned there's a break tomorrow around mid-day but several models seems closing that gap now.
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S. Denton Ct here - OAT is a good 1-2C lower than most models projected today. Feels like the transition time gonna be quite a bit earlier.
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Notably drier than 12z if I'm not mistaken
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There's this one other model RRFS-A or Rapid Refresh Forecast System (Prototype A) is also showing a huge ice storm like HRRR or even more aggressive. but personally I have no idea how reliable it is. Maybe treat it like a worst-case outcome.
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my first time hearing this term in real-world lol thunder-freezing rain (TSFZRA)
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Yea I was watching that as well. But I don't see any other model being nearly as insane as HRRR. I tend to think it's an outlier. I would like to trust NAM a bit more in this set up. Update: NAM actually trending a bit drier if any. Keeping the FZRA very light for DFW.
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There will be some Freezing Rain looks like. light-moderate
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This 12z HRRR looks extremely concerning with heavy FZRA for most of the state. That gonna be a major disaster for power grid! But the good thing is 12 NAM seems not buying into that. Personally I feel NAM is normally more reliable for set up like this. Hope that holds true this time.
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The 12z NAM has accelerated the arrival of the 32°F line. AFD overnight mentioned they expected it to move in slower. It would be interesting to watch this afternoon. Normally models tend to underestimate the speed of these fronts. p Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk
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12z Nam is saying a bit warmer on Friday day actually. Probably means more rain and less ice than earlier expected Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk
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Nam is hinting a dry slot. This is a notorious busting factor for DFW winter events. Not again! Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk
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Don't really think this gonna be Dec. 13 at least for DFW. That was almost all ice. Sent from my SM-S937U1 using Tapatalk
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Was about to come here to say this. If history is any indication, the only thing can be said for sure now is it's going to change. But what's interesting is the precip is trending a bit north on the latest runs. That trend was observed on all models. Edit - Nevermind, 0z Euro pushes it even further south, snowing in Galveston i guess...
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It close to impossible for models to nail anything that far out
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S Denton Ct here transited to snow in the last 30 mins or so. Accumulation seems picking back up. If it continues for the next 6 hr like HRRR and NAM modeled, this is still going to be a pretty big event here.
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If it's just hover above freezing now, I feel it should go below freezing quickly after dark. That should make the rain-snow transition earlier than many short range model says.
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Understanding it's nowcast time, but pretty much all the models I can see is currently increasing the snow total for DFW. Definitely not a bad sign.
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Yea that's interesting. I actually just checked again. Both model says my location should be 34/33F at 14z but currently it's 30/31. I think is really comes down to how much it could warm up in the afternoon. That could swing the snow total by a lot.
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Good call here. Both 12z NAM and HRRR came in notably warmer than yesterday. DFW is basically a cold rain until later this evening if that holds true. a bit disappointing but at least there's still plenty of snow overnight, hopefully!
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Does this mean more sleet/FZR for DFW or even just rain? Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk
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SW Denton Ct here -1C now. About 1-2C cooler than most short range models said. Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk
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18z NAM also stepping up notablely!
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0z Canadian/RDPS and Euro/EPS both came in looking relatively good. Slightly less crazy than previous run but at least starting to show some signs of consistency with GFS along with HRRR. I would remain cautiously optimistic about snow for the 4 counties in the metroplex.
