Lots of dark blues on the 3km NAM on TT, almost from the get-go. All that snow falls within a 4-5 hour period. Definitely some near zero to negative theta lapse rates.

00Z Euro, 10-1

Latest CPC 3-4 week progs..

Getting more clumping flakes now here in Crofton, def a sign of nearing 0C somewhere along. Oh WAA, you were good today, so it's okay if you want to mix now..

Just got done with shoveling (round 1). Just a little less than 3.5" here in Crofton, still snowing. 

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I ran out of reactions to give, but I appreciate the sentiment. Include @wxmvpetefrom now on. He’s an incredible Met and a great friend. Went to Millersville together for a time and work together at WPC. Amazing mind for winter weather and analysis. We’ve been looking forward to a day like this for a long time. It’s been a nice storm so far and will only continue to crank overnight. 

Very happy to work with these guys at WPC. And to you Scott and Pete: Perfect timing for 3 days off! Yeah baby! 

A little less than 3" here in Crofton MD as of 9 pm.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Anyone know what that RRFS experimental thing is?  Hopefully is sucks because it’s the only thing that has looked consistently awful for our area. 

Yeah...about that...

The Rapid Refresh Forecast System -- RRFS -- will ultimately replace the current CAMs, including the NAM, HRRR, ARW, ARW2, and HREF suite. Many aren't on board with that, at least right now, given (a) the poor verification of the RRFS at this point, and (2) while the RRFS is an ensemble, it's ensembles are of the same system. Whereas the HREF is comprised of an ensemble of multiple (different) systems. Not looking forward to that day...hopefully it'll be put off. 

Rapid Refresh Forecast System

GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS). This project aims to develop advanced high-resolution data-assimilation techniques and ensemble-forecasting methods while supporting the unification and simplification of the NCEP modeling suite around the FV3 model. (<-- But the FV3 has been pretty crappy verification-wise).

Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on:

• Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation
• Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics.

GSL is the owner and responsible for all data in this AWS S3 Bucket.

I'd be wary of the NAM folks, even the 3km. Mainly because, well, it's the NAM (btw NCEP can't pull the plug on that model soon enough). I know it's in the shorter range when the NAM could actually be right. But look at some of the CAMS, including the latest (18Z) HREF are all farther south with the axis. I mean, look at the latest HRRR (the one Pivotal Wx map)...heaviest stays south! And were within 24-36 hours of go time.

Will be interesting to see the 18Z GFS trends. ECMWF and UKMET, while not as far south with the max QPF and snow axis (into central VA), are definitely more muted with more widespread 2-3" for most, which is consistent with the NBM.

Proceed with caution with the NAM3..

Latest NBM v4.1 and v4.2 snow for Mon-Tue. Lots of 2-3" for the DMV. Not sure why the 4.2 version is a touch higher; might be because of SLR, but I'll take that one. 

Should have posted this earlier, but the ECMWF ML FuXi model ("Foo-chi") is pretty optimistic for the Friday system as well. All totaled, at least ~10mm total, perhaps more since we don't really see the full resolution. That's like 0.4"-ish. Not bad. 

It should be noted that the FuXi was consistent in having 0.15-0.30" with the Mon-Tue system, which appears pretty reasonable now.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401140000&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401150000

GFS is solid but boy oh boy still quite a bit of spread when compared to the high res guidance. I mean we go from 4-6+ south of the DMV area on the GFS to heavier snow north towards Balt north with warm ~925 mb layer issues along/east of 95 here, esp in So. MD, per the NAM and high res guidance. All within 36, maybe 24 hours from go time. Weird.

Frontogenesis with a narrow ribbon of enhanced isentropic ascent always seem to overperform with events like these when the Arctic chill follows suit. 

Since we're dealing with the NFL playoffs, the GFS vs. ECMWF battle to me feels like...

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Gotta admit I chuckled a bit at "FuXi" model!!!

Oh believe me, I did too! I think it's pronounced "Foo Chi".

If it helps (and no it doesn't), the 0.25 degree experimental FuXi ECMWF ML model gives our area (I think) between .15 and .25 of liquid equivalent QPF Mon night into Tue. A band of overrunning snow north of a flat wave/eventual weak low off the Mid Atlc coast. 

MSLP and 850 mb wind speed:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202401121200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401160600

12 hr QPF (4-5mm through 12Z Tue...another 0.5 to 1 mm through 00Z Wed...:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401121200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401130000

This particular version has been verifying fairly well of late.

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

If he’s in, I’m in.

If you're in, I'm in!

Just an FYI, and not even taking into account the latest (12Z) guidance, but the probabilistic WSSI kinda sorta gives us an areal extent of what most likely would be minor impacts. We'll see.

Also attached the 13Z NBM 50% percentile snow (most likely total or mode). I think, or I'd like to believe, this is a good 'floor'...with hopefully going forward an increasing trend. The main shortwave driving this event is still south of the Gulf of Alaska, well west of the WA/OR coast. 

Meh, good time to start a thread. I mean, it's going to be something. Even if an inch or less of cold smoke before the coldest air of the season so far. Best to get this separated from the medium range thread that will probably have other trackable systems around Jan 19-20 and beyond.

I like it. LFG!

34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

 

Amazing this look has been showing since I noted the gfs had hints of it on Jan 5! And we tend to bash these models more often than not.

Those twin systems in Jan '87 were so awesome. I was 16 at the time, living in Springfield.

22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours.  Just like to watch it snow.  

That's what she sa... oh nevermind. 

SIAP...This will be the first 'test' for the growing list of machine learning runs from the ECMWF suite. Verification has been pretty good, especially for some. Not going to get the specifics (i.e. ptype, snow totals, etc.), but at least we can see what the ML runs have in terms of the track into the medium range.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No we just need the NAO and AO to be -4 stdv at the same time as we have a stationary TPV at 50/50 and a perfectly placed full latitude EPO PNA ridge with the axis exactly through Boise. 
 

Jokes aside to clarify my point…those making the case why this shouldn’t be a DC HECS are 100% correct. The PNA isnt perfect and the 50/50 slides out too fast.  But I have 2 counter points.  What happened to just a 3-6” messy snow in our area from a storm that “wasn’t perfect”. That used to be the majority of our snow. 3-6” in our area from a storm that cut due to those imperfections and dumped 12”+ on Buffalo or something. But it was still cold enough to start as a nice snow here. Why do we need a perfect track to get any snow even when we had a cross polar flow direct injection only a few days before???  Second point is why is it a repetitive pattern that the WAR associated with the TNH continuously is winning and preventing a 50/50. Yes no 50/50 is the micro reason we lose but why are we seeing the failure of blocks to produce the canonical response in the northwest Atlantic repeatedly. 

Well said PSUHoffman. The fact that El Niño episodes are a bit less frequent "these days" is another potentially interesting by-product of climate change. 

We didn't always need to have an El Niño to get lucky with a bona-fide Miller A. It does help to have that overly active so tropical jet. But I think of the A storm in Feb 2014 -- which was during a Niña winter. 

Matter fact, I believe so many of us would take winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 -- both ENSO Niña or neutral yet PLENTY of productive Miller Bs that were able to reach us south of I-70 (those 3-6" events that we can't seem to buy these days). 

My hunch is we'll get lucky, or unlucky depending on where you live, with a slider that happens to be timed perfectly with a transient cold air surge. Much like last January. Problem with those is it's going to be quite frontogenetic -- meaning a sharp northern gradient. We happened to do well here in central AA County...areas to the south towards Fredericksburg and Southern MD even better...but that's just pure luck.

Snowing decently here in Crofton with the backside deformation banding setting up. Before the lull, we may have gotten a quarter inch or so. Happy to hear the NW-W areas doing well. 

For me, this winter was more than okay, especially after a disastrous December. 10.25" on January 3rd was really all I needed. That was a great storm at a great time of the season. 

Good sized wet aggregate flakes here in Crofton/central AA County. 36°F. 

Looking forward to the 2-4" IMBY. A little jealous of eastern New England, then again I'm not overly partial to crippling wind chills and snow drifts at the same time. Give me a foot of pasty dense snow without the brutal cold like we (almost) had Jan 3rd and I'm good.