*Flash*

8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

If weather models were college football playoff teams:

Michigan = Euro.  We know they are good, but that model steals our signs and Heismans(I mean snow).  And some of us really just don't like that model, because it is only blue(at 500) in Michigan.

Texas = GFS.  It is all American, and is only good during the fall.

Washington = CMC.  They seem like they should belong, but nobody is quite sure until they actually win against a good team.

Alabama = AI model.  AI should be better.  Why? It is AI, and it gets in because Google made it.  But really, we aren't sure if it is better, or just has a good day every once in a while.

FSU = CFSv2.  We know it is good, but we just don't think it can stand up against other models.  But A LOT of us don't like the AI model, and would prefer the CFSv2 as a personal preference. (no offense meant towards our AI friends in the Big Bend area of the TN river).

Georgia = UKMET.  It leads the way right before the Euro comes out every day.  But in the end, it just isn't the Euro, and AI made it look bad.

Tennessee = Euro Weeklies.  They always look good from a distance.  But when reality hits, it is just a passing cold front.  But we love them, because they alway show orange(on 500 maps) over Greenland.  Plus, the Weeklies are said to be able to throw it 80 yards.  But last year the Weeklies were better than the AI model, and we are gonna live on that for the next five years.

 

If this was last year, I'd say TCU is like the NAM. Solid in the short passing game and the resolution is ideal, albeit within a small sample size. Verification is a mixed bag. Got crushed by the UKMET though somehow defeated the Euro...but now the Euro is back on top where it belongs. 

19 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I still feel if the forcing remains around the dateline or 180w, we should have opportunities at cold and snow this winter. Also, what's interesting is the AAM is negative, which isn't elnino. It's more niña than anything else 

Yeah, that's a good observation. Makes me wonder if that will promote any blocking patterns. I'm not as versed with the AAM index but I assume negative implies slower flows? 

Just for fun. First time seeing a rainbow with hail falling simultaneously. Got maybe a tenth of an inch during the event but a little goes a long way in October...

Location: Regions Bank in Dickson, Tenn. 

Drought conditions aside (I'll take my quarter inch and run from 10/5/23), I'm diggin' this +PNA/-EPO pattern. Hopefully, we'll see a few weeks of this during actual winter. Despite September 2023 being the warmest since 2019 for BNA, still seems like fall is behaving itself so far in the early going. Outside the heat bubble, many outside locales have been right on top of average as opposed to slightly over. 

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR range is a little more interesting today.....

 

 

Cryptic Carver with a double ellipse. My favorite. I'm going to assume he's talking about the Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro Weeklies for next month...

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Well the CFS and ECMWF weeklies are just about total opposites around here. Lovely! Must be shoulder season.

Most of the Pacific tropical cyclone activity is joining the jet stream, vs pumping up a China (ABNA) ridge. I have to favor the cooler CFS. In contrast to the GFS/Euro debate, we've seen the CFS win out about as often as not.

Agreed. For those getting nervous about the extended creeping warmer, while there's some validity to it, it may be overdone. Whatever the case, when the humidities are as righteous as they are, it's hard to note the difference between a 75/52 day and a 80/55 one. Let's get those lows down and set the stage for some seasonable, on-time foliage next month.  

Day made…

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cw1LQX_L973/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

On 9/8/2023 at 7:01 AM, fountainguy97 said:

Looks like this cold front mid-week next week and Lee will hook up and bring fall crashing our way. This will be a permanent step down in temps and our first big taste of fall.
 

You won me at 'permanent'.  

14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is that his prelim forecast? I haven't seen an official from them, but that doesn't mean it isn't there.  I haven't looked closely.  Maybe it was on a video?  

That would be a very aggressive forecast for a five month window.  I could see maybe mid-Jan to mid-March making a run at that.  I am less enthused about Nov/Dec...but, LR modeling doesn't support my warm Nov/Dec idea.  However, w/ so many BIG warm-ups during our recent winters....anything BN would be a score in my book.  

From what I understand, it's a prelim. Haven't caught a playable forecast, just this graphical eye-candy that I'm taking with a major rigid of salt. I agree with you in the sense whatever transpires DJF will feature large-scale amplification. I'm encouraged by the potential for a big-hitter or two but of course, it's too soon to know how long our window will be. 

Did anyone catch JB's 2023-24 winter weather forecast? Too soon to be putting these maps out in my opinion. Plus, why do I get the feeling our viewing area finds itself in the blue almost every year? Latest trends seem to suggest a stronger ENSO with effects pushing further into the fall/early winter. Unless that -PDO signal backs off and/or unless we get a more 'Modoki' look, I lean towards a milder winter with the classic hyperactive STJ bringing in an above average amount of precip/cloud cover days. Will likely be sticking with this take until I see overwhelming evidence to the contrary. 

31 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I just hope some rain is thrown into the pattern.  It’s getting quiet dry. 

True. At least mowing frequency will decrease with time. #silverlinings

Nice to wake up to see the ECMWF retrograding the heat ridge westward (GFS has it too but a bit further east for my liking). Will a mid-month trough verify? I hope so! Regardless, September 2023 is looking less like a 2018 or 2019 repeat. I'll take it. 

21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep, good find.  The new, seasonal CANSIPS maps which came out today are a pretty big step towards a very warm early start to fall - torch for September and then a very slow, gradual decent back to normal by late December.  JFMA looks like money at 500 and on the surface.  Good to see that continue to be signaled by that model.  Best pattern seems signaled for the last of Jan through mid-March.  

Kind of looking at Flash's list above, I am a HUGE fan of 15-16 for NE TN.  NOT saying that is what is going to happen, I just like that analog year, because of how much it snowed IMBY.  I think we see El Nino maybe hold through summer, and  I think analogs which continue the Nino are most useful.

The El Nino analogs I am most interested in are the ones which have an extended bout of La Nina just prior.  You hear me reference SST gradient.  That is not my idea.  It is one of the guys in New England (Typhoon maybe).  That gradient between the Nino and the rest of the ocean needs to be sharp - not washed out.  I think we get that this year after the triple or quadruple dip Nina that we just had.    And add in a falling QBO to go with that.  

***Those analogs will be very few, but those are the ones we need IMHO.***

Ah, good call about the Nina prior analog. While I imagine there won't be many seasons to pull from, might as well use next winter to build the sample size. I'll need to follow up; however, I want to say the last time we had three straight Moderate to Strong Nina seasons was 1998-99 to 2000-01. 2001-02 was a dud but it set the table well for the following year. 

Looking at Moderate to Strong El Ninos since 1950-51. It's interesting how even the peak of the bell curve is from OND to DJF. While some of these winters were whiffs, others had plenty of memorable moments. While the sample size isn't that great, per this list, it sure seems like non-weak Niño's are like the 'Three True Outcomes' of baseball. In most seasons, you're going to either strike out or hit a home-run, while in others, you may get by with a base-loaded walk. The peak intensity and other teleconnections represent the uniques pitches you get within the box. 

I'm definitely curious how the rest of the year will pan out temp wise given the timing of ENSO's peak. Perhaps we get a taste of fall late September/early-mid October before the torch comes back rest of the way. Personally, wouldn't mind the winter heat getting out of the way early a la December 2021 before a turn to much colder. 

Whatever the case, yesterday couldn't have been more fitting to end this summer. The last few days in particular not only brought in a refreshing air mass but ensured suburbs outside BNA would mean out under 80° for JJA. For many, this is the first time that has happened since 2014!

Nice, John. Sure feels good out there relative to last week. I'm making plans to do some outdoor activities with the kiddos today. Looks like we'll have to wait a while for the next overcast day around these parts. Not a bad week to hit up some parks/hiking trails/splash pads, etc. 

Doesn't look like CPC and the CFS are on the same page. Gotta think this changes once they realize the Sonora and Bermuda Ridges are combining which can be a tight grip. 

To be fair, I think many of us have adjusted our expectations in recent years to round September to summer. It's hard to take fall seriously until October at best. Let's hope September 2023 is NOT a redux of September 2019. That's my concern at the moment. September 2018 and 2016 were rough as well, but at least there were snapshots of autumn those months...at least for middle TN. September 2019 was wall-to-wall blowtorch. Please, MJO, don't park yourself in phases 8-1. Wait until DJF. 

This guy needs to update his AMO page but it seems like the overall AMO trend is decreasing. Still net '+' but coming down.  It's been going back and forth in bi-decadal stretches since the turn of the 20th century.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_amo_index.php

12 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I maybe be incorrect, but back in the 60s and 70s the PDO was negative at times and we had colder winters.

Per Carver's post and the link provided, it seems the best winters relative to PDO generally (key word) coincide with weak phases. To me, I wouldn't get too caught up in positive vs. negative but focus more on signal strength. Can the PDO be overridden by other factors like MJO/ENSO/QBO, etc. That may be the question to ask, specifically can the PDO recover into weak territory by peak winter? We shall see. Whatever transpires in 2023-24, give me some mobile amplification. Not a fan when troughs park in the same areas for months at a time. 

I haven't done much in terms of research but experientially going back 25-30 years, while I recall Nino ENSO bringing less precip to middle TN, I'm not 100% sold there's a mirror correlation to below average snowfall. This century specifically, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2015-16 were very kind to BNA. 2006-07 was decent. A few of those ENSO's were weak, a few others were moderate. 2015-16 was super strong...basically a rare lottery win for our area as we were able to cash in during a 2 week window. 

On 8/13/2023 at 8:30 PM, Itryatgolf70 said:

I feel the same way. If the niño don't shift west and stays east based, the chances of wintry weather will decrease substantially imo. Especially as strong as it looks to be heading into fall and winter. A -qbo can only help so much and we need alot to com together. We shall see

I concur. We will need a strong -QBO if we have a strong east-based Niño. Preferably, our ENSO is weak to moderate so it doesn't drive mild pacific air all winter.  At least, the stage seems set for a more unsettled, perhaps frontloaded pattern for mid/east TN.

For awareness...

9 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Sorry.  I should have said here in Mid TN.  It’s been overall a great summer.  Everything is green & only a few bouts of hot temp periods. 

100% agree. I was tellin' my wife the other day this may be the best summer since 2014 in terms of tamed heat and consistent precip. Not quite as cool in terms of mean temps, but more pleasant mornings/evenings relative to recent years. I'm still sore after a pathetic, underwhelming 2022-23 winter but this summer has been a decent consolation prize. ENSO seems to be doin' its thang. Let's just hope we're not encroaching on super territory a la 2015-16.