Maxim

Just now, King James said:

Consistent? Easy where you move them goal posts dude! Need to find them for later

Enjoy the 70s next week!

No need for your hostile bullshit. 70s whether consistent or not should absolutely NOT be a given during the first couple weeks of March, regardless of what the models show or what actually happens in reality. Work on controlling your emotions in the future btw, it'll do you some good.

Just now, King James said:

Not unreasonable at all, 70s in March happening every year it feels like. Shoot, it was 68 on my car dash just 3 weeks ago before the cold snap hit

70s are still like 30+ above average and are in record territory for this time of year. So yeah, I'd say it's pretty unreasonable to expect consistent 70s in the first half of March anyway.

6 minutes ago, King James said:

WGN says I’m at 72 next Tuesday

You'd think people on a weather forum would know how unreasonable it is to expect 70s already at this latitude even in our warming climate. But yeah, they'll be here soon enough.

the CPC outlook for March doesn't make much sense considering the 3-4 week outlook they released yesterday, but it's whatever.

I actually don't mind the bit of extra blocking the models are showing in the long range. Could actually cause the warm pattern to get "stuck", so to speak.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean this month finishing above average isn't going to be a very high bar to jump, looks like the majority of the days will be above normal. Doesn't have to be a torch to be above normal.

Yeah, it's a general warmer than average pattern even before the actual torch comes. But the torch signal at this range is so strong, it makes me wonder if something more special may transpire later on. Still think the core of the warmth centers itself over the Midwest as opposed to the EC, but y'all should still be plenty warm.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The mid-March warm spell is still there on the overnight ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS):
 

Yeah, the models haven't backed off on the warmth at all. If anything, they've trended warmer. The people even questioning if this month will finish above average have lost the plot IMO.

Never seen these probabilities on a 3-4 week CPC outlook

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Where was this gfs pattern 2 months ago

Has no ensemble support tho

1 hour ago, MidwestChaser said:

Interesting GFS run so far.

Gets it down to 972 mb, not too shabby.

4 hours ago, DocATL said:

I mean I want Morch but GFS, I ain’t mad at ya either.

Now tell me what you think of the 18z run.

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Of course there were ups and downs, there are almost every winter. But it was still a colder than avg winter. Had plenty of winter fun here in January/February despite the lack of big storms, so my issue is not getting a mid-March torch. My issue was how saying 10 days out is too far to worry about ptype to which your crystal ball told you I’ll be disappointed. Look Cromartie, youve been pretty well behaved as "Maxim", so kudos on that, but Im still going to call out BS when I see it. 

Never played in the NFL actually, tho I’m flattered

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know youre disappointed it wasnt the warm winter you continuously called for, but i dont see how saying that a storm signal 10-11 days out is too early to call p-type is setting myself up for disappointment 

when did I continuously call for a warm winter? It was an average winter overall in the temp department with lots of ups and downs despite it lacking snow, big whoop. Enjoy the torch when it comes

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wayyy too far out to even guess p-type. Ensembles definitely like a swath of snow ~March 9th

you’re going to be sorely disappointed, that’s all I’m gonna say.

March

BOS +5.7

NYC +5.5

DCA +6.3

ORD +8.0

ATL +5.5

IAH +5.5

DEN +5.1

PHX +0.7

SEA -1.0

Your thoughts on the long-term pattern? @Chicago Storm

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's not like a pattern that's going to bust colder, without much going on in the upper latitudes. Best we have going is that the NAO is no longer strong positive.. it goes to neutral.  Maybe a better chance up your way.. 

For a while, the operational models were completely clueless and showing nonsense cold and troughiness for some reason. Not really seeing that as much now, with the OP GFS even suggesting a reload of the warmth at the very end of its 06z run. Maybe 2012 is a decent analog after all...

With zero high-latitude blocking in place, I would expect the models to trend warmer in the coming days.

19 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I hope we don’t rubber band back into cold in April. Probably wishful thinking. Just ready for green grass, fired up grills, and open pools.

Way too far out, but I don’t really see any indication of that at the moment.

Tip on the New England forum seems to be implying that this could be next-level warmth and the models may continue to trend warmer.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

These calls have busted all season long so doubt it happens but lol if it did

Yep, total nothingburger

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow @Bluewave
 

Pretty obvious now that the cold March hype some were buying into is not going to pan out.

On 2/20/2025 at 7:54 AM, A-L-E-K said:

ensembles look bad for those pining for early spring

maybe it's good to get the cold out of the way now, idk

p sick of the nw flow era tbh

You were saying?

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Range for major SSWs since 1958: Nov 28th (in 1968) to Mar 24th (2010). Six of the 44 in the list below occurred anywhere from around the time this one would possibly occur to 3/24. The very late ones had no effect on met. winter obviously since it had already ended. However, the Mar ones can cool a portion of early to mid met spring in the E US. They usually do that 2+ weeks later. A chilly spring doesn’t necessarily mean a snowstorm. There are many aspects of wx forecasting that have nothing to do with snow or extreme cold.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

I’ll believe it when I see it

Lol we still doing this SSW stuff huh