Kaner88

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

This GEFS is going to be wild 

No kidding, Hour 96 sees 1.5" QPF downtown compared to 1.06" on the 12z. Man oh man

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

RC wrote a great afd that laid it all out.

One of the most detailed ones I might have ever seen. Real good stuff.

16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Depends on what portion of this stretch you're talking about... The overrunning portion or the main storm.

Fair, my bad - I suppose the main storm.

A question for the experienced folks here: what factors would we be looking for to materially shift the track either north or south with this heavy snow band? Of course there's the Canadian HP which would force a southerly track if it comes in stronger / northerly track if the HP is weaker ... what other flies could we find in the ointment?

4 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

Trough out west digging deeper by hour 78, along with some modest strengthening in Great Lakes ridging (compared to 0z Euro)

Should have added this graphic to be more clear (now to Hour 96).

Trough out west digging deeper by hour 78, along with some modest strengthening in Great Lakes ridging (compared to 0z Euro)

18 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Odds we see aircraft sampling of the disturbance in the Pacific given potential large impacts?

NHC appears to be on it:

140 
NOUS42 KNHC 281825
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0125 PM EST FRI 28 JANUARY 2022
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JANUARY 2022
         WSPOD NUMBER.....21-059

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
       A. 30/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 07WSE IOP07
       C. 29/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY
          30.0N 150.0W, 30.0N 125.0W, 50.0N 125.0W, AND 50.0N 150.0W.
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 29/2030Z-30/0230Z

Edit to add no flights planned for tomorrow

Gut punch here in Omaha

10 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Too bad too as slower in this instance probably means south.

I'm curious to find out the answer to that question (how does a slower shift change the game) too - poring over the mid-levels of the last six GFS runs suggests the 'fastest' with trough ejection eastwards was either today's 00z or the 1/27 06z; 'slowest' (or, at the same time, the furthest south with the trough) was this most recent 12z followed by today's 06z.

1 minute ago, Natester said:

0z GFS snow totals.

I can dig it, lot better than getting 2" with that hellish north-side gradient

14 minutes ago, Natester said:

Fun fact: 18z ICON gives Cedar Rapids ZERO snow.

Korean model looking pretty solid though

Just now, Natester said:

Not getting my hopes up on the HRRR.  Still amps the system up like the NAMs.

Can only imagine what the DGEX would have shown with this system, RIP

12z ECMWF has 0.44" QPF in Omaha, falling amidst surface temps in the single digits, goodness

2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Wow is Omaha getting buried. Awesome storm for them

Can confirm, wicked out here

Things looking good here, visibilities have been <1 mile all morning. Local office described 12pm - 7pm as best time for snow, imagine that band in Lincoln plays big into that outlook. Plows can't keep up on the main roads, much less side roads.

3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

My Jerry Taftesque predictions with little evidence to back it up would put me in a precarious position 

RIP to Chicago's anti snow weenie 

RGEM lays down 10.3" in two hours in southwest Iowa, clear frontrunner for best weenie run of the year in that region

Killer gradient in Omaha on the GFS, which appears to be OAX's favored model

12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Long range nam so take it with a grain of salt but it's way south with the 500mb low. Has sfc low at 84hrs just off shore from Houston. Crazy

If we still had the DGEX it might have had the low in Cancun

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Nice to have a real 1'+  event on the table at least, definitely rather be 100 miles nw tho

Fun to have the operational Euro and upgraded Euro laying down >2' imby, imagine those totals will end up closer to Norfolk if they happen at all

Very much enjoying model guidance these last few days

2 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Is it safe to say that it's a lock that most of Indiana will at least some some flakes in the air next week ?

About as much of a lock as this

In seriousness the GFS & ensembles seem to be trending more favorably compared to earlier today

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

skillz

 

 

is this the new “Alek” physics package?

Would be one for the ages if alek singlehandedly pulls a coup on the Euro & all sets of ensembles 

To be expected but 0z NAM takes a chainsaw to snow totals in NE & IA