The 4 Seasons

Elevation making a big difference as we change over. It's all snow at 230ft in North Haven and 90% rain/10% mangled snowflakes at 110 ft. 34F

Decided to make an actual call on this one as there is a good chance some places in CT will see the first plowable snow and many places the first snow in the air. Snow this early is very rare and warrants a forecast snowfall map i feel. Most of the population of the state will likely just see snow in the air or coating especially on grassy non-paved surfaces. Feel theres a good chance of very low end advisory snow in the hills of 2 or 3" possibly up to 4. If models change signicantly for 12Z and 18Z ill make an update but i think this is fine.

thats probably what i would FX as well for most of the state except the immidiate shore and SE CT probably just T

Overnight 00z/06z runs look much improved from previous. Would be great to see 1-3 but im not holding my breath.

Looks like it already snowed a bit on the top of Stratton.

Map is very conservative, id probably go at least a couple inches in the hills, but i get it.

but but, it has pretty maps

ICON RGEM NAM Clown mapz

betterhelp.com

imagine being down to the RPM and NAVGEM. Thats when you know you need serious professional help.

damn 5 months.

May 9th

From May 9th to October 30th. Pretty short season it's been for some.

OKX and BOX wants no parts of it, not really surprising though. All rain for most of CT outside of NW hills (ALY FA)

NYC too, i do remember the entire OKX CWA was under a warning and NYC only picked up 1-3" when they were supposed to get 6-10" and thunder snow...

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

nobody believes you, but nice try

Call it off, cancel, game over.

Can we please call this the Zon of Zeta? homage to Son of Sandy

how does it feel to be the one and only human on earth to favor the UKMET?

12Z PARA v16 GooFuS

Yeah its dumb. You can find just as many early season (not necessasarily extreme late October) events that results in a average - great winter. Nov 2002 Nov 2005 Nov 2012 Nov 2014 And how many October events that had plowable snow on LI were there? Like 1? Oct 2011, thats about it.