tek1972

On 7/3/2021 at 7:29 PM, Wow said:

The width should be variable now and tapatalk should be working again.

Tapatalk still not working

First measurable precip of the day here falling now.
Sky is really lighting up to the south over the ocean. Makes no sense why the Atlantic and the LI Sound do so much better with storms than LI itself.

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/80), or about +1.0.
The GFS has lost almost all the heat it has been showing over the 'next 15' on the daily updates.      Maybe a computer patch---if not---we may see lower T's than indicated.   It has more rain for the next 5 days than the other two main models too.
74*(88%RH), dirty, hazy blue.

Not pretending to know the influences, but per NAEFS,  and general pattern... looks like potential for more than the normal 90+ for the NYC metro area in June, beginning after June 5. 
June CP norms 90 or greater from what I see, (3) and max 90 or greater (11).  So I could easily be wrong and seeing too warm. Also if needed correct me on CP stats, thanks!
Plenty more rain for parts of the subforum Wed-weekend, then turn on the bigger warmth. 

 

The last 3 days of May are averaging 53degs.(48/56), or -14.
Month to date is  64.0[+1.2].      May should end at 62.9[-0.3].
GFS goes for the 100's before mid-June, so don't let today's throwback, atavistic 48---worry your little heart.  lol.
48*(87%RH) here at 6am, rain.
 

12Z  GFS just tosses the Lithium away and goes manic:          Shouldn't the denizens of Texas be seeing something like this?

The last 8 days of May are averaging 65degs.(56/73), or -1.0.
Month to date is  63.3[+1.2].       May should end near 63.8[+0.6].
Only part of Holiday Weekend looks like it can be salvaged.      GFS continues with May 26th.  at 90 degrees.      Other models now under 90.
Made it to 90 here by 4:30pm yesterday.     Was still 89 at 6pm.
64*(51%RH), scattered thin overcast.

..when is the  SE ridge kicking in??..
Lee Goldberg says last 2 weeks of may..along the lines what Don S.is saying..can't get here soon enough.

Another shit spring, here we go again. No wonder people are moving south, life is too short to remain trapped indoors 

Looks like the warm up on Wednesday will have a weak backdoor nearby. So the warm spots will probably go above 80°. But there will be 60s and 70s to the east with the onshore flow.
 

Another day with a big diurnal temperature range. Our high temperatures usually beat guidance with such  low dewpoints and humidity. MOS numbers have mid 60s today in the warm spots. So maybe somebody can get close to 70°.
 

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/23/2021  0600 UTC                      DT /APR  23      /APR  24                /APR  25             /     HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N              65          46          68          51       63    TMP  42 53 62 65 62 56 51 48 53 63 66 65 62 57 54 53 54 56 60 56 49 DPT  22 18 17 19 23 29 31 32 35 33 32 34 36 40 43 44 45 45 45 38 33 

 

06z Gfs is now downright summery late April into May.
Shows mid to upper 80s multiple days.

No heat at all on the gfs

NWS saying 64, TWC saying 55. 
 
Models tend to treat Long Island as if it’s a buoy in the Atlantic so I trust the NWS here, the only time Long Island doesn’t keep pace with NYC/NJ is when it’s socked in with clouds/fog.

Swath of what would definitely be advisory-level snows if it were to play out pound for pound

2 inches in Mastic

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Lots of sleet mixed in

In central suffolk

Barely an inch on roads

Can still see the grass tops

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Rain now mixing with snow in Mastic
37.1 degrees

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Looks like the 18Z NAM moved heavier precipitation 30 to 50 miles SE

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...same here 23* @ 9pm..temp now 29.7* @ 5am..think the c/o is inevitable..about 2" OTG..probably
looking @ the lower end of the 5-8" of snow here on ELI..hope i'm wrong but thats my gut talking..

This system looks TERRIBLE. I'm not sold on any gusts much past 50

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Could we have a separate thread for weather sensor/temp discussion?

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Cool onshore flow continuing into early next week. Then we transition to a warmer 80+ pattern away from the shore. The warm up is followed by the next cool down to start June.