tek1972

I got nothing today in central Suffolk.
Just partly cloudy skies

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No sun in central Suffolk so I'm guessing the strong storms don't make it here?

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Thank god the pattern hasn't been hot.
Who the hell wants heatwaves?

Looks like next weekend could continue the onshore flow theme that has been dominating May so far. The Euro has 850 mb temperatures in the +18C to +20C range for Saturday. If the flow went SW, then the warm spots like Newark would easily rise to the mid to upper 90s. But a new wrinkle is showing up in the latest guidance. Subtle warm front forms near the area with SSE sea breezes. This limits the mid 90s potential to Central NJ where the winds go more SW. So places like NYC and LGA could struggle to reach 90°. Newark would be close and could see 90°. But if later runs have more SW flow, then the warmer Euro idea of yesterday would work out. 




 

Sun trying to break though here-wonder if we end up with more sun today than forecast just like the past couple of days.

i see a lot of comments about how they are sick of this kind of weather. again i ask why would anyone want warm and humid weather from now until late september? i prefer to keep the heat away for as long as possible no sane person would want humid hot weather for 6 months non stop if that is the kind of weather you like.. move to florida!!!

We really lucked out with the heat this far due to the cutoff but after the 20th that will change.
Mid 80s are a given 

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week  with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. 
 


 

it is so cold this morning with a gusty wind.. blustery conditions amazing for early may in the city..

Clear skies today just to our NW.

Forecast for central long island , not reaching 70 degrees through the 22nd.

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record lows in Central Park are in the low to mid 30's...where is your location?...

any day with the Sun out this time of year gets into at least the mid 70's unless there is record cold...so far May 2022 is getting off to a cool start...Will it continue?...I hope not...today just missed having a max in the 40's...Today is the day you are sorry you turned the heat off...

Models say welcome to summer by later next week. 
Just have to get through these next few days and then it's 80s and maybe even 90+ galore. 

Pretty impressive heavy rainfall gradient for the cutoff low from Friday into Saturday. This would already have 100 posts of we were talking snow. All the guidance has a different forecast for how far north the heavy rains come.



 

Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts.  
Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs. 

11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 

Love the heat. Bring it on. Nothing better than warm summer nights outside.

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FML

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The Euro seasonal is going for a repeat of last summer. High dewpoint ridge east of New England. It could allow more tropical systems to get stuck underneath like we saw last summer. We had 2 tropical and 2 post tropical systems affect our region. There were a total of 21 named storms last year. The Euro has 18-19 named storms for this year. The big story for us was the historic flooding with Ida and Henri. 
 



 

Not a good pattern if you like warmth 

I’m right on the eastern flank of the enhanced risk. Fun afternoon ahead..

Not warm

Weeklies flip the Ao/nao after mid month haha 

This storm for next Friday is showing up on basically every run of every model and it's coming across the country so not likely it will just dissapear but the question is if it's going to be a wintry event or a cutter that changes the pattern.