showmethesnow

Be careful with PA. There is a very real chance they will be going after that money (low hanging fruit) sometime in the near future. Their debts are piling up (biggie is the Teachers Pension) and their fiscal responsibility is going in the tank as we see spending ramping up. There is only so long they can reshuffle money and kick the can down the road before the bills will be due. Wife and I were seriously considering moving to Somerset in two years to stay in PA for the tax benefits on pensions but have recently started to reconsider for those very reasons stated above. They also hammer you pretty hard on Real Estate and school taxes as well and would not be surprised to see them jump up even more as the State searches for money.

Seasonal wave length changes for the win.

Might have had some flurries while I was sleeping but nothing to show for it when I woke up this morning.

Getting to bed at 10:00? Yeah, way past my bedtime when I am normally getting into bed at 6:30-7. Had my favorite nephew fly into town with his wife of 3 months so we went out for dinner. Went to Texas Roadhouse in Westminster and it drove home one of the reasons we got out of MD 15 years ago. The place was an absolute mad house. Spent 15 minutes just trying to find a parking spot along with another dozen or two cars as we circled the restaurant. Finally parked up the hill around the Pizza Hut. Kind of irked me though when both my nephew and his parents who joined us were both able to find spots instantly when they pulled in 30 minutes later even though it was just as busy. Didn't help matters that we had an hour wait, outside no less because of what limited waiting space inside was jam packed with people. Yeah, don't miss MD at all.

Looking at radar you can see the down sloping's impact. Radar returns are getting real ragged. Hoping I can eek out a dusting here but I am not too confident.

I enjoy life whether it snows or not. Though I would prefer snow to be part of the equation.

Quick glance and I see the GEFS has moved to the Euro. Can't picture a winning scenario if the NS can't for the most part bypass the Southwest SW and move eastward reinforcing the suppression. Not giving up at this time (will give it a couple more days) but admittedly it does look rough at this time.

After a quick glance over the boards I am taking it the day's runs didn't go so well?

Down sloping for the win, errr... I mean for the loss.

That actually wasn't far off from a good event for our region. See that drop into the SW a little farther east (100-150 miles) and we might be talking a warning level event. Get that to drop 200-300 miles to the east with it actually phasing (not the sloppy swing and miss we see here) and we are probably looking at a coastal.

Ralph and his snow porn. Have we? At 5+ days I am not so sure I would count on that. Don't know how often I have seen a good setup inside 3 days go to crap because the models all the sudden produced a piece of NS energy to screw things up.

I miss that model. People go on about some of the models these days with their Fantasy snow. But the DGEX was King. It never failed to produce HEC and even BEC at the drop of a hat.

Wanted to be a pilot when I was younger. Had a good shot at the Air Force academy but when I found out my eyesight wasn't good enough to fly the fighter jets I took a pass. Wanted to be the the predator and not the prey of which flying one of those big lumbering cargo jets would have made me. If I had a do over though I would probably do things different knowing the things I do now.

Okay, I am leaving no stone unturned. The NAM looks good. That is if you can get beyond the fact that I am talking the NAM, at range and then extrapolating a couple days beyond to boot. Seeing good separation between the NS and the SW in the western US to hopefully minimize the interaction between the two beyond the end of the extended. .

Enjoy flying myself. But I do prefer the direct flights. If I am going somewhere I want to be there yesterday and not spending several extra hours with a connecting flight. About the only benefit to a stop over for me is that you get an extra takeoff and landing thrown in and I enjoy them.

Seeing as we haven't seen a post from him maybe he is one of the souls that get lost in airports after missing their connecting flights?

Not a bad look. Maybe a little bit of suppression? But we are once again running into the same issue we have dealt with for a few years now. No N Atlantic blocking besides a possible transient 50/50. I know a lot of times the models don't pick up well on that at range and we hope to see it as it nears in time. But that really hasn't worked out well for us this year. So we are once again counting on timing. But beggars can't be choosers so I would much prefer this look as opposed to others that have been thrown at us.

Who says I care about your back yard? I am now in it for ME. I'll take all your snow as well as others and not feel one regret. Of course now I probably guaranteed myself a suppressed system that hammers you and I get fringed. Karma and all.

Looking over 500's on the 06Z GEFS I really couldn't tell you if they improved or not. We did see some changes but whether they were good or bad depends on what energy gets keyed on and what time. I will say we did see an improvement on the mean surface low as well as with temps. Snowfall maps also marginally improved.

Looking over things I haven't given up on the late Thursday/Friday event or possibly even through the Sat/Sunday time period as of yet (usual caveats about favored climo areas). Far from it actually. With a possible extended period of suppression to offset the general wave length pattern we have been/are seeing with copious amounts of energy riding underneath just about anything can happen. Biggest hangup I see at this point is how much interaction we see with the NS and the SW energy in the west. Euro goes full throttle with that and screws everything up. But if you look at the other models they all differ with that interaction. The less interaction/farther east we see with that the better the odds for our region. And looking over things, I have seen peppered throughout the runs looks that I thought were just missing. Of course I have seen some real dogs as well. I think besides looking at the general 500's as i normally do I might also be paying some extra attention to the individual ensemble snowfall maps. Think they may be a good indicator on our chances. We start seeing good solutions start popping up/increasing at this range it might be a good sign. As far as the extended, I try not to look. Need to keep my sanity after all.

Not that I believe it will play out like this (just one solution of many we will probably see over the coming days) but I did find the overnight GFS to be interesting. What we saw was actually 2 shots at a snow event for our region. As you can see below there was a lot going on. Our first shot involved the SW in Texas which has a good look and is in a good spot for possible impacts within our region. Now what we are seeing occurring is that we have suppression setting up in southern Canada that will help to drive the boundary/cold air farther south. This on it's own might not be enough to keep any forming system in this general set up from pulling northward through or towards our west nor to drive the colder air farther south quick enough for any possible system. But notice the SW in the Midwest leading the Texas SW. As this is moving eastward and washing out it is helping to set the suppression farther south (as well as moving colder air southward quicker) to help keep any forming low underneath us. What pooches this setup though is the suppression in southern Canada is slow to leave and not only that it presses farther southward. This combination pretty much squashes out the Texas SW as it moves eastward. But a little less press and /or a quicker departure and we might have a distinct SW for a system to key on. Now the second shot we have involves the trailing SW in Wyoming and the NS energy diving out of western Canada. What basically happens is that as the initial suppression relaxes to our north that NS energy is rotating around to once again to reinforce it for our Wyoming SW moving eastward. The problem we have though is the NS energy is running just in front of the SW (second map below) so it is not allowing some height builds in front of that SW. It is basically squashing it to death as it moves eastward. But we see better separation between those two features we are probably looking at a distinct SW for a system to key on 1 1/2 days after our initial shot. As you can see, both examples are pretty much all about timing.

Euro/Eps won't win any friends. Need the NS for the most part to bypass the north and lead the way for the energy ejecting out of the SW. But instead it is playing footsies with it. Hell , they are friends with benefits. The look out west is nowhere near what we need to see and the surface responds accordingly with the low driving into the Lakes.

Latest GEFS saw improvement at 500's over the 12 Z. eta: Of course the snowfall maps didn't agree with me.

We need to see that NS energy in front of the SW energy as seen below to have a chance. If we see it running behind, such as the second map (18z), we will see the low cut. Really wouldn't concern myself with the latest run because more then likely we will see those features flip flop around over the next few days.

He meant to say 2' and I agree with him. If things come together right that is.