Here are this morning’s CTP thoughts.
Recent NBM/LREF model guidance paints an impressive signal for
gusty winds on Monday after the cold frontal passage with
EC/GFS model guidance in fair agreement in a 850mb 70kt LLJ
across the Laurel Highlands. Additionally, BUFKIT GFS Time Sections
for KJST show 50 kt isotachs down below 500 ft AGL, and 60 kts
at about 800 ft AGL. With the intense SFC low sliding by to our
north, there`s not a significant 3 hourly pressure rise (i.e.,
GRTN 5 mb/3 hr) accompanying the 30 deg F temp plunge on
Monday.
We topped out winds in the low 50s (KTS) across the highest
ridges just west of Interstate 99 and west of RT 219 in the
Laurel Highlands. That being said, would like to see another
model run or two before hoisting a High Wind Watch as the NAM
and other blended guidance indicates solid Advisory Criteria
winds.