Lake temps are probably running mid 70's right now, I have been down in the lakes region for 50+ yrs, Typically on any given day, You can get that lake affect but its generally from 2 pm on as to when the winds pick up out of the SSW if your at the State park, With the shape of Sebago, Any wind direction will get you a pretty good chop to white caps, Been out there where some days will rival the ocean with some good 3-5 footers.