dryslot
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Everything posted by dryslot
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The 12z GGEM was similar to the 12z GFS, It had the flow compressed by the PV and kept the SLP well offshore.
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Not what you want.
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That may give it the boot.
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Agreed.
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Most of us know what the outcome will be without any help from any northern stream interaction of some sort.
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We watch, We wait.
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At one point it would have been, Its still a long ways out as it went from showing up around the 8th to pushed back to the 10-12th time frame so its delayed on modeling........lol
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I agree with all this, And all this does not get sorted out for a few more days at the very least, Going forward, Just pay attention to the northern stream and how it interacts.
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Most definitely, Not often when those to locales get blitzed that it works out further north, That's why the northern stream involvement or lack there of will be key.
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DC to BOS has had some good ones in the past where we have sat shaking a snow globe to get the same affect up here.
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Not one of your more favored systems up here in CNE/NNE for a significant event, As discussed in the past, I'll take all the Miller B's and Clipper types that nobody else wants, To many things need to go right for a siggy Miller A up here, Not that it can't happen, Just that it doesn't more often then not...........
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And that's going to be the key for something more then just a passive system offshore up here, Even a partial phase just a bit earlier would work.
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The two keys going forward IMHO, You can see on some of these runs, Steps towards both.
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If the northern stream gets involved it will come, And it will come with a loaded gun, If it remains just a southern stream s/w, Then congrats DT and the Mid Atlantic crowd and maybe some up here gets some scraps.
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0z GGEM is 978mb over ginx's head for the system on the 10th.................
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I hate um
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Still timing issues but that was a better look with a stronger s/w down south really slowing down and the northern stream was just a bit late with at least a partial phase offshore but southern s/w got far enough north to scrape the cape this run
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Better look on the 18z GFS, Stronger southern s/w.
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You mean like the one on the 5th? That i said that would whiff and was told history didn't agree with me?
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Well, In that instance, it can be more then just a peek, May have to do a full analysis.
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You wouldn't be doing your due diligence if you didn't look, Doesn't mean to run with what or what not you see though.............lol
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No matter the case, Going to need some help from the northern stream for the northeast i believe anyways, Mid Atlantic can probably pull something off with the southern s/w's, But even there it depends on what lobe comes into play, Really need to see one of the two s/w in the northern stream dive further south but won't help if the southern wave runs out ahead of it other then act like a kicker, Lot of timing issues to be worked out, About all you can say for now.
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I just take a peek at ea run to see where were at, Definitely needs more work, Just seems were getting pushed out to around the 12th now instead of the 10th, A lot of moving parts in the flow and the models will struggle before it gets sorted out one way or the other, 12z GGEM's focus was on the first s/w around the 10th and got it as far north as the delmarva before heading NE from there and scraped the south coast of SNE, Will just continue to watch from afar.
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It just phases that one a little late and keeps it offshore, Way to early to get invested in any of these scenarios right now.
