Yup, Euro likes to hold back the s/w in the SW so you can factor that in and and still come with a favorable solution, The 12z solution was not that far off if you eject that sooner.
Absolutely not, It tracks the low thru PWM on the 12z run, That looks very reasonable at this time, The GFS is OTS, Split the difference and you have a lot of happy folks here.
Exactly what the 0z Nam just did, Even here as well, Its the Nam though, Coldest run so far, Pops a secondary along the Maine coast, 18z Euro did go a couple tics colder too though.
I'm guessing they are using the GFS, Even the Ukie looked like it was trying to pop one as well looking at that kink in the isobar as it shifted east with the primary from 0z, Cant see in between 96hrs and 120 hrs, Nothing else to look at really for now, But this is pretty close to a decent event.
12z
And the Euro took a step towards what the CMC has had over the past several days, Pops a secondary east of PWM, Some of that is today here, But that would still be close to a warning event if its all snow, Weenie map, But its close.
My signal is when i decide to get off the sofa or if i like how it looks today, Then i just leave it alone and let that wench mother nature do her dirty work.