dryslot

12z GFS dragging its heals getting the data out, Starting to think the govt shutdown has something to do with this on SV anyways.

Looks like the timing is getting later as well as the GFS brings this in in two pieces, Weak over running on Tues, And a more amped s/w on Weds.

Flow is fast, And that s/w @H5 is not digging very far to the south, And yes there was more blocking originally down stream, And you were also getting that HP west of Ottawa to build in to force it south as now it looks to slide to the east as the s/w approaches, At least that's how i see it right now.

It looks to stay quite active, And we are getting into our highest climo time of winter coming up, I think right now, We're in a better position having the gradient just far enough south that we stay frozen unless we get some of these southern streamers that come along without any phasing from the northern stream go up the St Lawrence, Right now, It seems the Northern stream is going to get more active which in turn bodes well for CNE/NNE case in point, The tues (8th) system, Its tough to miss out on snow when these move right over you from west to east.

That's really the one we want to watch anyways, Don't like the last few cycles of that one though trending weaker, More of just an over running event like yesterdays now as its lost the Miller B look, But it still looks like a low end warning event.

Definitely was better on the 0z run the this 06z run........

Oh and there is quite a bit of qpf down there, Its pretty marginal here on temps so it would come down to dynamics, Also, The Euro is the furthest NNW with getting the precip in here besides the GGEM and RGEM, They both get it back even thru the mtns but are very warm and it would be rain.

The other issue is there is a s/w in the northern stream that giving this a "kick east as it gains lat so some of these solutions we whiff on. DE areas are seeing more in the way of snow as the colder air gets in for them sooner, The Nam just did it again at 12z.

Charlie has mentioned it on WGME13, 06z Euro cut back some though.

Looks like 1-2" or so.

Calls a spade a spade, Whether some like it or not.

Will he understand not happening James?

Not, He knows better........I think.

I think tomorrow (12z) becomes thread time for our next threat if things hold.

Catch the first rays of sun to hit the US too this time of year on Mt Cadillac!

I think we will be happy with the system on the 8th.

Like the direction this is coming from, Kind of a better version of today actually, Pretty well cross haired at this point, Looks like we hold on to all snow so far, The only real question that needs to be answered is how much.

Can't say i don't like that look on the 12z Euro.

I just went and filled two more gas cans when i heard this earlier.

Some on here are really shook, And i mean really.

It was, Euro was steadfast on it, Nam and GFS waffled a few runs.

Ahh, The memory's of yore.

He's cooked for a while, No pun intended.

Ant is in line at the ticket booth to get on the melt train....................

That track on the 12z uncle for the 5th if we have any cold at all would be interesting, Especially up this way.