dryslot

This week, 12z comes out at 12:12 pm and is done by 1:00pm on SV. News ECMWF News Submitted by mrwx on Wed, 2024-03-06 09:37 Faster Dissemination Management New News on the Next European Model Upgrade Optimizing the Speed Situation The much faster delivery of the European ensemble started on Tuesday, March 5, with mixed results for StormVista map and data production. Products were available much faster than ever before, however, issues such as out-of-order files and varying speeds in file type dissemination are requiring logic adjustments for future speed optimization. StormVista's larger list of variable and map options are beneficial to clients, but they become a liability for processing speed. The ECMWF's faster delivery includes providing files out of order with significant delays at times for key files. Missing Hour 45 (as happened on the first day) caused map production disruption, but it did not affect the 6-hour max/min data for city forecasts and degree day calculations. However, when Hour 180 stalled, it did impact city/degree day calculations, allowing the maps to get ahead once the file arrived. There were also issues when the various types of files (low vs. high resolution) also arrived out of order (low-res is typically faster, but not the case on the first day). We are addressing each of these challenges and adjusting variable priorities to find ways to speed up delivery in these instances. In Other Big News Amid yesterday's chaotic situation (they initially flubbed the 6z roll out too), the ECMWF announced big changes to the next model upgrade: New upgrade, Cycle 49r1, is now planned for October 2024 This is a significant delay from their typical June-July upgrade timing They will make the operational (HRES) identical to the ENS control run They will make this operational/control run available earlier than the ensemble (as they do now) However, according to what they wrote yesterday, this new control run (operational) will run out to 15 days instead of 10 Not only did they change their intention to remove the operational, but they are now running it out further The Cycle 50r1, planned for October 2025 will continue this earlier control run release out to 15 days

12z Euro looks like the 12z GFS.

I'm hoping i miss out by a few miles like a few others this winter but watch that not be the case........lol

12z GFS didn't take the bait, Snow is still relegated to the higher elevations and into Northern Maine for Sunday.

Oh wow, Lock it in!

Don't do it.

Sounds like 1.5 acre's with 150' road frontage to me.

I'll have you come up next year and show me how to shovel a 150' driveway with 8" of mash potatoes properly, Deal?

Days of shoveling sailed 30yrs ago, Your back will thank you later in life.

Snow up past thy knickers.

I would have to find a new letter in the alphabet to rate this winter, Well below an F.

1.5" for Feb, 38.2" season.

That's what i was going to mention is what drove up departures, We never had any night this winter season that we went below zero here, Lowest i had was 1.9°F

2.36" qpf and counting, Yard is snow free, Terrible this early.

When talking to many ice fisherman this year, I've been told that ice thickness on all lakes and ponds looked to be 50% of normal.

Lake Auburn up here was 03/23/10 the earliest ice out date, Its going to be gone within the next 10 days i believe, It never froze over until the end of Jan, Its quite black right now.

Going to be some very early ice outs on lakes and ponds here, Probably many records will fall for the earliest ice outs.

Congrats EOR!

More healthy then any potential snow event up here this winter anyways, You guys cashed down there on a good event.

Soaker

Possibly even more, About to set the all time record for earliest ice out here at Lake Auburn, 03/23/2010 is the record earliest, I'm betting its gone in the next 10 days.

Flood watches are up here, So far we've had 1.75" with another 1-2"+ overnight into tomorrow.

40.1°F with +SHRN