H2O

Merry Christmas yall. Enjoy the time spent with friends and family. Cherish the memories

My fave model for Xmas is the EDBM

Eat Drink Be Merry

Would be nice to have that more than agenda driven posts 

Merry Xmas Eve yall

32 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Can we name the thread something else…

(The lambs are still screaming )

Xmas gift return day?

21 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

salisbury getting tea bagged?

Too much sag given how cold it will be

I generally keep my dumb thoughts to myself(cause I’m more wrong than right) but this is why I kept stressing a -NAO and have it more west based. Think of it like a wreck on the beltway before the 270 split. Only after you see how bad the wreck is will you then find out how bad traffic snarls and jams up. You gotta get the block first. Then let it jam up the flow. NAO or AO too far east lets too much traffic find other ways to escape.  

This storm might not be it. But if it helps keep things jammed then look for the next one. 

I don’t think the models will know until the storm hits the coast and gets sampled better. Tomorrows NAM will be the first to show at 84hrs. Until then we just won’t know. Unless we see more birds flying north. But not northeast. That’s bad. If we see wooly caterpillars flying north that’s REALLY bad

For all this model stuff being nice to see, proof is in the pudding.  Lets see if/when it happens and then maybe the models will start to sniff out threats

I said about a week ago that if there is to be any ATL blocking it helps if it’s NAO because we need the road blocked closer to us than Norway. 
 

Gimme a jack knifed semi with 50/50 and that can buckle PAC flow enough

Nothing can replace the CRAS. CRAS4LYFE

17.4° 

3 hours ago, mappy said:

Seriously thought they were going to lose at the end. 

They did all they could to let the giants win but got the W

On 12/5/2025 at 3:39 PM, H2O said:

12/5: 1.8”

12/14: 1.5"

17. Was expecting colder

18° at 6pm 

steady fall all day. 

@Bob Chilli should have caveat’d to say so far this winter GFS has done better with NAO vs AO. 

Obviously both being neg is preferable but I guess I like NAO more cause it jams up the ATL closer to us which for me means HPs can’t slide east so quick. We’ve had AOs be neg but be in locations that don’t help as much. 
 

Basically I want anything that gives us snow. AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, DIY, WTF, SOS. Gnat farts in Mongolia work too

Is it just me or by looking at those graphs , the models do a lot better with the NAO than AO. 
 

personally I rather have a NAO in our favor. But if PNA is ridic neg we gonna need a bottlenecked Atlantic to make PAC stuff slow down and give us events

For MBY in the tropics we def lost a lot of snow due to temps. If we hadn’t torched during the day it would have accumulated better. This could have been a 2-3” deal if ground wasn’t as warm. 
 

Shady areas already icy cause now temps falling

1.5”. Winding down

My temp has gone up from 39 to 40.  Dew 31.  This looks like rain in Georgetown is a lock

Still expecting 1” only. Boom is 2, bust is flizzard 

I’d love to see the precip expanded all the way to short pump to feel good about this one. If it did that then NE MD can get PUMMELED 

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  That's hanging in the back of my mind.  It's keeping me from being super pumped about any of this.  I'm in a weird space of happy, but ready to accept probably failure.

It might work out, it might not. I have 70/30 fail to win ratio. 
 

Until it starts we just won’t know

Southern end precip getting cut back as models home in on clipper transfer and coastal pop. Trend has been drier for DC south along 95 but if I get a dusting to 1” I’ll take it and quietly wish it was more

Looks like a bunch of y’all are in live and die mode for every model run. Gets fcking tedious. 
 

Whatever falls falls.

True dat