BombsAway1288

They've been terrible anyway. The HIRES had me getting 18" snow 2 days out for today's storm. Hope the're right but take them with a grain of salt right now

I would think that a stronger/ a little more amped system would bring good banding in that could overcome BL issues in this marginal temp set-up down here. If this is going to be a weaker system overall, forget about 10:1 ratios and it sticking that well. Then again, it's at night

I guess it gets going too late? Weaker system, less qpf. I'll believe it and the rest of the models at 12z tomorrow. Believe it or not, 24hrs out is still too much time for things to change these days

No report from James? I know his 16"+ didn't work out but it looked like the Cape was getting whacked this morning into this afternoon once the mix line collapsed.

True. It just seems pointless to even mention it. A lot of times in previous years someone would say it after a model run came in warm or dry for a storm.

FWIW it was way too wet at this leadtime for today's "storm". I wouldn't buy it until 12 hrs out. Hopefully it's right though

Your guy/gut is telling you this is a nowcast? Really!? Every storm is a nowcast. This has been said by someone for every single decent winter storm for the last 5+ years

Wouldn't that be nice. Would like a nice cold airmass to go along with it instead of some rotting one so at least the non-southcoast coastal folks around here don't get stuck with slop, poor ratios that have trouble sticking. Obviously it gets a lot harder to do the longer we go into March. The global's have been seeing the threats long-term though. The GFS has had this upcoming storm consistently since when, last Monday? It's just when we get closer in, with many other models thrown into the mix, we can't seem to get a proper consensus with even a 1 day leadtime Hope you're right!

Compromise of the Euro and GFS?

This year and last if I remember correctly. It used to lock onto a solution 48 hrs out and hold onto it to the bitter end and end up verifying. You could trust it with your firstborn!

2.6" here final. I'm actually kinda surprised that we got that much after going through that awful 00z guidance suite last night

The RGEM used to be deadly. I hope it's right, I just don't trust it I don't remember what the NAM was showing for the NYC area 24 hrs out but it was the only model remotely close to being right in SNE. It was the only one leading the charge showing it chasing the convection and jumping East. Then again, every storm is different. Here's to the NYC-BOS corridor maximizing Sunday nights potential!

That would sound great 2 years ago. That model has never been the same since it used to nail everything in the mid and short range. I don't trust it or any other model until 12z tomorrow morning. After yesterday's forecast debacle under 12 hours out (at least in SNE), none of these models are worth investing in. Yes, I know, different set-up but it's a volatile pattern Wild swings inside 24 hrs are not supposed to happen dammit lol

Move up the hills! I know, easier said than done but the Pioneer Valley is the snowhole of Western Mass. I spent 4 winters in Amherst with a lot more memories of sucking subsidence then a clean snowstorm. Had friends that lived in Shutesbury and man, what a difference 1k ft. makes. Biggest difference I remember was actually the Dec 08' ice storm. Shutesbury was a disaster area

It's cute that we're all trying to nowcast this thing back and all but every single piece of 0z guidance went east and away. It's over for any chance at a warning snowfall for everywhere. What an incredibly piss poor performance by all models! We finally got our consensus! It's 2019, you'd think by now that we wouldn't be having significant swings in the majority of guidance 24 hrs out. Maybe it's just the volatile pattern idk, I give up and I'm not trusting any model for monday's storm no matter what it's showing until it's under 12 hours

So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong? You swore by it yesterday. Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting

Would be nice to get the same last second NW tick that has hurt us all winter. Of course when we need it the most, it's nowhere to be found, for now.

Have these 2 maps made their usual rounds on social media yet? Imagine all the idiots out there taking it seriously? I think someone should post it

Yeah I saw that. He'll try to find anyway for the worst outcome to get under peoples skin in here. The true definition of someone who just trolls people on this board. He's already 5-posted but just continues his crap. There should be something for him next time he talks in such absolutes. Back to the storm

Nice and juicy for a mean at d3

A compromise would be nice. Honestly, I don't think that any of the models will have a perfect handle on this until they see what exactly the Saturday storm does. They'll probably still be swinging around come Sunday mornings 12z suite

Yeah they're playing it conservative but it's paid off so far. I could see them still upping this later especially if things swing better for the 18z suit

Is the Euro still the most NW of all the guidance?

I'm guessing Jimmy didn't like the results the Euro had for both of these storms.

He doesn't need to. Said it's a rainer for the city