weatherlogix

Every model is way north and west. Fun times

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here. 

I will give you Feb 1961. I would think it's a fairly good analog. Probably the best one out there with this weak a surface low

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 

It was 2 separate storms. The overrunning gave central PA their snow. The setup isn't anything like that. That was like a 60 hour storm

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here. 

8-12"? The NAM is showing ~30". Are we speaking the same language. No storm except like March 1958 had a big show in central PA that also gave this area in the teens in inches. Feb 1958 same deal. But they are few and very far between

8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

Not to mention 2003 was a closed low as was 2016

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? 

A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close. 

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right.

It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95

You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right.

Just now, MJO812 said:

He is right but everyone wins

It's not a good run for LI at a minimum...but I suspect a much larger area

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM crushes the whole area except Jersey Coast. 

This was not a good run

Just now, MJO812 said:

Kuchera  lol

Yeah, let's lock that one in now

25 minutes ago, Mothman said:

Greatest american band!

Phish? 

Quick question....if you were to try to get to the beaches (Atlantic/Long Beach) on Tuesday to see the storm at its max, including high tides, what time of day would be best? Thanks in advance

Quick question....if you were to try to get to the beaches (Atlantic/Long Beach) on Tuesday to see the storm at its max, including high tides, what time of day would be best? Thanks in advance

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

AO and NAO are negative right now. Unbelievable. 

would have bet this 6 months ago....same crap as last year. -nao in the spring and summer....

46 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Approaching 2” here with moderate snow falling.

 

Great storm. I think NYC can squeeze 4” out of this.

"Great storm"...shows you have pathetic this winter is going and it isn't getting any better

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The blizzard came at the end of the cold snap-we were below freezing 12/25 to 1/5 or something like that.   it warmed after the storm, but the snowcover did last awhile

January 4, 2018. NYC had like 10" while the further east you went the higher the amounts were. E. Islip had like 16" or something like that

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There was some pretty nasty dry slotting from about NYC to Nassau for a time.  Quite a few places there saw only 16-22 inches or so.  I want to say BDR only reported 17-18.  We’ve definitely had some oddball measurements over the years at the airports and NYC.  That Newark measurement on 2/11/94 I think most agree was wrong.  NYC’s measurement on 1/22/87 I had an NWS Met tell me 18-20 years ago they KNOW was wrong.  Recently we obviously have some real awful ones but even before 2000 we saw occasional sloppy reporting 

With that said the LE was 2.16"...the dry slot really matter?

On 12/6/2019 at 3:05 PM, uncle W said:

all the winter storms with at least 2.00" of LE for NYC...

4.43"...17.5"...02/04-07/1920...mid 20's to low 30's...snow/ice/sleet for over 72 hours...

3.17"...20.9"...02/25-26/2010...mid 30's to upper 20's...wet snow some mix...

3.11"...14.5"...03/01-02/1914...upper 30's to upper teens...started as rain/sleet/ice...

2.68"...12.5"...02/20/1921........mid 30's to low 20's...started as rain/sleet/ice...

2.62"...17.4"...02/03-04/1961...upper 20's to low 30's...changed to sleet/rain for a time...

2.52"...10.6"...03/13-14/1993...low 30's to upper 30's...changed to sleet and rain...

2.40"...26.4"...12/26-27/1947...mid 20's to low 30's...all snow

2.32"...27.5"...01/22-23/2016...mid 20's...all snow

2.22"...10.4"...02/03-04/1926...mid 20's to 30...mixed with sleet and ice...

2.16"...20.2"...01/07-08/1996...low teens to low 20's...all snow...

2.10"...21.0"...03/12-14/1888...upper 30's to single digits...started as rain/sleet...

2.08"...18.1"...03/07-08/1941...low 20's to low 30's...wet snow ending as a mix...

2.08"...12.5"...02/13-14/2014...mid 20's to mid 30's to mid 20's...changed to rain for 12 hours...

2.06"...19.0"...01/26-27/2011...low 30's to mid 30's to upper 20's...changed to rain for a time...

 2.16 LE in Jan 96 and only 20.2" of snow with temps that cold (presumably upper levels cold as well)...yeah I am going to go out on a limb and say they are likely 7-10" off

14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

It’s 32 in the city? That wouldn’t help with rates?

Rates have nothing to do with surface temps. Look at h7 and pray they are at least -10C

Edit: Or whatever level the snow growth is occurring

It's raining

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot  north.

Maybe your computer screen is upside down?

17 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Seems like the precip shield is drying up?  Appears to be 30-50 miles surrounding NYC, and that's it?

It appears that way to me...

Radar looks like crap.

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The guy who said "it's beautiful!" In raiders of the lost ark was French...is that a good or bad omen considering what happened next?

Belloq