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weatherlogix

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    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

    January 1987 was an epic snow month where I lived in Worcester, MA with a record breaking 70 inches at Worcester Airport that month alone.  I remember going to school with the biggest snowpack I have ever seen and may ever see.  Coastal sections saw a lot of mix and rain events that month and where I lived was in that sweet spot close to the rain/snow line.  It was really the only month that I remember throughout the 80s with one snowstorm after another.  The next time I experienced that was January-February 1994 in Boston. 

    And I meant Jan 1987...I think it was January 25.....I was in 8th grade. NYC was forecasted to get a quick 2-4" and switch over to sleet/rain, like so many 1980's storms had done before it....but it kept snowing and ended as freezing drizzle. That storm was in at 9AM and out by 430PM or so. The next week there was a storm that mostly stayed to the south - NYC was forecasted to get a lot more than what actually occurred. One last storm later in February, also hitting the mid-Atlantic harder than this area....and I thought that winter was the greatest thing since sliced bread....had no idea a 1995-1996 was even possible.

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

    What about Feb 1979 (PD1) and April 1982?  They were both close to double digits and I would put April 1982 just because of when it happened and how cold it was.

    Neither reached 18" here which is what I call HECS though.

    In the NYC area PDI wasn't as impactful as it was in the Mid-Atlantic

    April 1982 slipped my mind but a storm like that in January wouldn't have been that huge a deal...what did Central Park record 9.6"?

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, bluewave said:

    This is the first El Niño year since 1950 with a +9.3 December SOI and negative February PNA. The 2010’s keep coming up with new pattern combinations.

    Could it be that as a whole the weather/science community is using 100 years of data to make assumptions rather than a million years and maybe they aren't new combinations just unobserved combinations?....you can't beat god (higher being or whatever you believe in), no matter how educated you think you are.

    • Like 1

    February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

    Goes to show how bad a winter can get.

    The MJO, AO and NAO all look to go favorable, then the PNA overrides all the positives.

    I am shocked I was able to reach 10 inches on the season so far.

    If the AO and NAO are favorable (and -PNA), theoretically, there would be a north atlantic block or at least some confluence in SE Canada....so its conceivable that the trough wouldn't just lift up through the lakes like what has been happening. Assuming confluence, could be a Miller B...etc

    January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

     

    Do you have a magic 8 ball? You should stop posting if you think winter is over. 

    I didn't forecast anything. I just got my forecasts from Isotherm and earthlight and others who thought this winter was going to be good at this point.

    Everyone called for a pattern change in late January which verified.  Instead of calling someone out , know your facts first.

    Earthlight and Isotherm are both very bright and talented forecasters - not taking anything away from them, but, here, in this instance, they are going to throw gutter balls this winter. The writing is on the wall. One week of cold, a snow event here and there and and annoyingly cold March (again) wont make this winter wintry. Damn November snow events

    • Sad 1

    January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    People went gung ho on a -NAO winter when all signs in fall pointed towards it being positive especially when we saw the dip negative in mid november before it shot right back to positive. The WAR that had been in place since summer refused to die and was also completely ignored in many forecasts. Too many based their long range based off analogs and what was supposed to happen in a weak modoki nino instead of analyzing the current pattern in the fall. There were red flags. The 3 month running average for the NAO was positive for most of 2018, and this was completely ignored. There is a trend for the NAO to favor one phase or another over a long period of time and there wasn't anything that jumped out to me why this would change. Their were some interesting theories on why we'd see a neg nao but they have all came up empty this year. Sometimes simple is best.

    Long range weather forecasting is like trying to definitively guess the sex of a child you are going to have before you even conceive. You have a 50/50 shot and if you get it right, you are lucky. God controls the weather not analytics.

    I'd bet this upcoming Spring will be cold and raw....

    One other thing to note that I have realized over the years (aside from Nov 1995), any winter with an early season snowstorm (pre 12/1) ends being the highlight of the winter (at least since 1989)

    January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

    The models are showing it getting very cold starting wednesday next week. Several days in a row with high temps only in the 20s. Let's hope we can get some snow out of that cold pattern. Right now it looks cold/dry but it's longer range, so hopefully the models will pick up on something.

    They have been wrong for weeks, let's hope that trend continues.

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just now, HVSnowLover said:

    Well given the storm track the fact that we are even in the discussion for frozen precip indicates there is some cold air in place. 

    My point was, its stale air and will likely be scoured away pretty easily - especially from the city south and east. On the South Shore of LI I am expecting little to nothing in the way of accumulating snow or ZR....

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