weatherlogix

In woodmere the flakes are getting crispy.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I guess you don't look at the models and what's happening now.

Sleet is not far away my man. The models ALWAYS overdue snow totals on those clown maps. Plus, just look at the Kocin book. THis was always an interior storm on every level of the atmosphere.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If the Euro is right and the sleet doesn't make it to NYC , we should see at least a foot of snow.

It shows a few more inches tomorrow in the area.

Wanna bet? The upper Bronx doesnt count.

58 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Our kiddo's first real storm being able to run around. I can't wait.

cant stop laughing

7 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

Am I crazy or is this coming east a little sooner than progged? https://www.weatherbug.com/maps/copiague-ny-11726?s=md2&PC=SPONSOR&u=i&w=mh&p=in&center=39.20499033605384,-73.96614971384452,5.0268437592801725&layerId=lxflash-radar-consumer-web

 

watch the CC radar.....

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

I like that the Low placement is still along the coast and has still not gone inland. Hope this continues

The surface low isnt the problem...its the H7 low

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Can everyone live with this??? I think it's realistic, with another 1-4" coming I80 LI after 5AM and 3-6" coming after 5A n of I80 in far nw NJ/ne PA and se NYS CT. 

 

We'll see if this comes down a bit in future cycles?

If I lived in Wayne County, PA i could live with it

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

3km NAM continues to show a potentially bogus solution changing EWR/JFK to sleet at 01z.  All the way to LGA and White Plains by 02Z then it miraculously falls back below Staten Island again.  both of those won't happen.  Either it changes at 01Z and never goes back or it doesnt change til 05-06

This was why I posted the NAM looked horrid

1 minute ago, shadowsintherain said:

You could be more... specific?

when the soundings come out ill expand.

Euro snow maps have to be way off. Most of what falls on the South Shore is sleet and the snow map shows 15"

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'm assuming it's similar to it's last few runs where it gives big snows up north to Albany and is warm on the coast just by seeing how tucked the low is. 

It wasn't that bad, so I deleted my post because it was misleading

2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Nice to look at but usually aren't reliable. I think the guy who posted it thinks it's a supreme model.

yeah, they are worthless

5 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

CMC is all snow for Manhattan. Temperatures stay below freezing the whole entire time at surface 700’s and 850’s. Great trend

are you sure? im too lazy to start looking at Skew-T's and soundings....but I think the GGEM was horrid

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Arw and NMM are wild but are they even reliable lol

I believe they are the main members of the SREF's

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The dry nose from 5-10K is pretty significant.  I could see that causing the first couple of hours to be slow to get going.  

Storms like that don't usually flip to rain do they?

23 minutes ago, romba said:

RGEM Kuchera. Does Kuchera take sleet into account or treats it as 10:1?

 

based on the individual skew-t's even the south shore of Nassau Cty is REALLY close to all snow.

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

These CCB bands are modeled so often but many times don't happen. It does have a vigorous 500 and 700mb low which close off for a time so I guess I could see that somewhere. 

once you dry slot it becomes very difficult to saturate the column again.....that run was not great for the city east

31 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

NAM is south and colder simple as that

yeah, nah, its not

Based on the 12 Z GFS sounding for KJFK it appears to be all snow. The temps in the snow growth region suck, however.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like  the 3/14/17 disaster. 

so exactly what I said last night

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.

its too far east

1 minute ago, Torch said:

You saw that yesterday?

go back and find my post from last night....

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need a south tick. Nam only has a few inches now in the city due to the dry slot.

like i said yesterday....3-5" and then sleet and dry slot - for sure for my area in Nassau Cty.

This is a 3-5" snow to sleet to dry slot special, at least based on tonight's modeLing

NYC-east

11 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Gfs looks good for us, lock it in.

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.