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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    Agreed, Interesting to see the ensembles
  2. Conway7305
  3. Conway7305
    I’ve been driving on the road for four hours and just checked the runs. 0z GFS is nice!!!
  4. Conway7305
    Euro still has rain/sn line in NOVA but it did make small shifts south from 0z
  5. Conway7305
    It looks like frozen/mix/snow line is further S on this run. Here is a snow depth forecast trend from 6 to 12z on GFS. This also includes sleet. Hopefully S trend will continue.
  6. Conway7305
    Will take for RIC
  7. Conway7305
    12z ICON a nice hit next week
  8. Conway7305
    We need a -NAO to have a better opportunity. Some show it dipping but a majority are neutral/positive. This index does tend to change so will see.
  9. Conway7305
    I saw overnight and 6z gives a front end thump before changeover, euro still is way north, I’ll get more excited when both are on same page. After next week looks like LR is a bunch of rainmakers for now.
  10. Conway7305
    12z euro OP still well north…waiting on EPS. GFS nice hit with Storm #1 who knows. …lol
  11. Conway7305
    Yeah, 6z GFS was good for NOVA. I was primarily looking at the 0z Euro pushing snow up into MD/PA. I agree, I shouldn’t doom and gloom but it’s just frustrating when ensembles down this way start trending in wrong direction and we go from 30 inches to .5 in 2 runs on operational basically. lol
  12. Conway7305
    The NAO was forecasted to dip negative quicker a few days ago but is delaying transition so no true block to keep storm south. I don’t understand why even medium range models can’t pick up on this until now. Unless the pattern changes, looks like it will be a a couple weeks before we see NAO dip negative
  13. Conway7305
    ugh, brutal n shift. Even DC gets shafted except for ice. Trough digging more out W is bringing back the SER. :/ I need to stop posting snow maps 7+ days out…lol
  14. Conway7305
    Thanks for looking out bud! i hope it pans out for everyone including the NOVA folks
  15. Conway7305
    0z GFS was Better run for us in Richmond
  16. Conway7305
    Ensembles were a step back tonight. R/S line further N. Lots of time though to adjust.
  17. Conway7305
    12z AIFS still solid
  18. Conway7305
    If the NAO Forecast can go negative quicker, it can help with suppression. Doesn’t look to go negative until around 15th
  19. Conway7305
    i agree unfortunately but let’s hope it doesn’t
  20. Conway7305
    It tended slightly north but still a hit. Lots of runs to go. Storm is next week
  21. Conway7305
    Some nice hits on 12z EPS
  22. Conway7305
    hopefully the ensemble members will be better
  23. Conway7305
    DAMN!!
  24. Conway7305
    I know this will change… Lol but I have to post it. What a beauty.
  25. Conway7305
    that is one massive snowstorm next week for us per GFS
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