HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Looks about the same or a touch north to me. Snow line definitely bumped north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022018&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022022012&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat&m=gfs
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Ticked north again, congrats again to the Mid HV. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022022018&fh=123&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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GFS about to fully cave I think Or maybe not...
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I think the surprise early Jan overperformer dumped like 9 inches at LGA.
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Seems like the right forecast for now. Its basically impossible to forecast precip types this far out, we can only speculate based on model guidance.
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You can def see it's been an average winter for NYC, a great winter SE of the city, and a lousy winter NW of the city.
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Lets hope the mid level warming doesn't go wild and that you and Albany can do well with this storm.
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It def trended more favorable honestly although didn't fully translate at the surface. If it slowed down another few hours I think a lot of people from NE NJ and points NE would be happier.
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CMC and GFS have nothing for next Sunday.
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Congrats HeadinClouds on 12Z Euro.
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Euro slower this run which might be a good thing but not sure yet.
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It includes sleet so I agree.
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Yea my previous post wasn't intended to say NYC can't get any snow from this storm but I do feel pretty confident anything more than 1-3 inches for NYC is unlikely.
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As snowgoose said last night if the high was further east and the cold was more entrenched ahead of the storm it would be different.
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Sleet is not counted on snow totals on those maps, thats why they are more accurate.
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GFS is trending north every run but more importantly the CMC and UKie both went even further north with the mid levels at 12Z. I think if anything this will trend further north from where it is now, not south. We do still have some time for changes in timing which could impact front end snow so we'll see. The models did overestimate the warming of the mid levels in 1/16 event so it's not impossible this could trend snowier on the front end but right now it's not looking good.
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Ive seen enough to say the snow threat is over for NYC. Best case outcome for the city is now a sleetstorm.
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Big difference between 1-3 inches of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain (absolute travel nightmare) vs 1-3 inches of snow followed by rain (basically a non event).
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The 0Z CMC has NYC and points NW at or below freezing most of the storm. LI looks slightly above freezing but we all know the north shore is usually colder than modeled.
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Yea the CMC verbatim is Valentines Day 2007 all over again for NYC but I'm not sure I buy that solution. Ukie doesn't show precip types but looking at surface/925 temps looks like it would mainly rain for the city. Will be interesting to see what Euro shows.
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The GFS is trending already to the other globals but the question is does it trend all the way or do they meet somewhere in the middle.
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0Z GFS with another bump north.
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Despite them getting made fun of I have found kuchera maps are pretty reasonable outside of the really big storms where they tend to be overdone.
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Nudged is a key word, it still has 10.5 inches of snow in Toms River. Either way I agree with you about consensus
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18Z GFS still way south.
