JBinStoughton

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s gonna flip for sure.  I was thinking the same earlier.  There may be more good La Niña February’s than there’s been bad Niño ones.  So I think it happens but if it’s not til 2/5 nobody is going to reach normal snowfall outside of a KU 

I said a long time ago it seems unlikely we’re going to somehow realize 130% of normal, and all the similar predictions,  when we keep squeezing snow production into a smaller and smaller window. Something’s gotta give at some point and then the discussion will be do we get to average? Do we get a KU? A MECS? 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Remember when winter was winter and pattern changes were real lol

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He's speaking for himself lol.....

Pattern change by later this month ain’t putting the goods in my yard now 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll sell on that putrid look in mid January. Probably going to start seeing some adjustments, but there is nothing anyone can say right now....people just need to see it snow and I get that.

At a certain point seeing is believing and all the prognostications of pattern changes coming and better days ahead, no matter how rooted in sound guidance they are, aren’t going to penetrate the psyche when people feel repeatedly disappointed.  Just human nature.  

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We take what we get.   Hopefully we’re deep winter later in the month...

Hope springs eternal 

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hell, maybe we’ll have a shot Feb 9th!

keep kicking the can

These winning teleconnections are gonna produce I tell ya! You could see it coming for months! 

59 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats on a December with a couple traces!

Always nice to cash in early before climo gets us 

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thank you for this great explanation of where you see things and thanks for the hard work you do and your willingness to share it.

Seems somewhat hopeful still. 

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

50s on NYD

Blech.  Out with the bad and in with the worse lol. 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Merry Christmas to the weenies. May you  all open up CJs and Benchmark storms.

Not this winter lol 

Merry Xmas!

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s actually not a bad pattern after NY. It’s not ice cold, but works for New England. Not sure why everyone got stupid todaY. I don’t see any glaring issues unless you expect Quebec City to visit. 

Wouldn’t mind it 

1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

Starting to look almost more torchy than yesterday...man, Decembers can really break your heart. 

And when it’s January it can kill your soul lol.  

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If things change around.

Of course a rip-roarin’ J-M would make all of our winter worries go away. I just hope this doesn’t become a will-should-could-didn’t kinda winter. The threat of a head fake is what worries me.  But of course we’ll see. It’s just that this has been one of the more promising collective winter forecasts in a long while and it would really sting to watch it duck and bob till April. 

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What a crap month (4-weeks) we will have had.  

Forfeited month #1 and counting. 

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I’m salivating over those weeklies...thanks for posting them!

Yeah looking good. But there’s a reason they’re called weeklies and not called tomorrow  

10 minutes ago, Greg said:

Nobody said that we were punting both December and January of the meteorological winter months of Dec., Jan., and Feb.  Only most of December. The change comes back in late Dec. and early Jan.

Yes, but apparently the sensible effects don’t kick in for 3 weeks post event. That takes us to late January. Anyway, we’ll see. 

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Each of the last 3 weeks were supposed to be snowy as well.............

All I read from the prognostications at this point is that we’re supposed to be happy we only have to forfeit two of the three meteo winter months and wait for a SSWE that may or may not happen and may or may not deliver if it does.  I don’t know. Winter used to just happen. Now we have to rely on anomalous events to maybe salvage part of the winter.  

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said el nino CLIMO is for not much snow in December...not forcing.

Stop, read and breathe.

 

Actually you said we’re not even technically in an el nino “yet”. Ok I’m breathing now lol. 

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It sucks, but everyone should have been prepared for dissapointment in an el nino December...some tried to toss el nino climo and go big, but it usually won't work.

If things had broken more favorably, it would have been a good month, but not Dec 2007.

The same el nino forcing that hasn’t shown up yet? Which way is it? 

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I had never felt such weather anger as I did that day.  

I was in NY at the time and had to sleep over at work because of the expected 3 feet coming. I woke up to about 8”. Oh how that stung!! 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you asking me about now, or a month from now?

What’s the evidence it will be there a month from now if it’s not here now? We’ve been in nino a while now. 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cold/neutral ENSO, though...

Where’s the nino forcing anyway? Does it even matter this close to neutral either way? 

Just now, dendrite said:

lol watch the SSW be too strong and screw us in some way. Kinda like how the -NAO bent so much in 09-10 that we broke. 

You can have the cold but you gotta watch someone else get the snow! 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winter was coming back on the 20th, then the 25th....now it’s early Jan? You keep rushing it, be patient. You’ll get 4 weeks of it, mostly in Feb. No wire to wire, just a bunch of strings dangling cold carrots in your sleep. 

Let’s look for one, high-sun-angle slopfest in mid March? 

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

All these posts will be interesting to look at 3 months from now.

Either this period will be remembered as the panic before prosperity or a cruel foreshadowing into the winter that never was. 

Hypothetically if this winter did end up like 97/98 then it would be the biggest forecast bust on record...unless you're a prophet like raindancewx.

“Never was” in spite of having been progged to really be. That’d be the true insult. We wait.