Rsheely88

Promising to see 4-8” in HR .

That’s the truth…sad with the technology we have these days. .

Maybe but i thought the rap was not a reliable model? .

No idea what Wakefield is seeing maybe Synoptics?? -- Changed Discussion -- As of 935 AM EST Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong winter storm impacts the region today. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360 corridor. Made significant adjustments to the forecast this morning after reviewing current conditions/radar trends and the 6/12z model guidance. Snowfall amounts have been lowered for much of the western and northwestern half of the area. Winter Storm Warnings have been replaced with Winter Storm Advisories across south central VA as well as western Tidewater/western Hampton Roads. First, there is a ton of dry air to our north and northwest. Currently at AKQ (Wakefield), the dewpoint is 3F and at OFP (Ashland) it is -2F. Any precipitation will need to overcome this dry, Arctic airmass. Also believe we may be trying to downslope the incredibly dry and cold air, located over the Ohio Valley, across the Appalachians and Blue Ridge...further drying out the local airmass. The latest 12z high-res model guidance is also significantly drier, especially north/northwest, with certain solutions even struggling to bring much more than an inch past the VA/NC border. Still think there will be a decent snowfall 4-8"+ for many areas across southside Hampton Roads into our northeastern North Carolina counties. There may even be a "jackpot" of 5-10"+ from far southern Virginia Beach down into Currituck County, NC. Northwest of these locations, there will be a very sharp gradient in snow amounts, and it is not out of the realm of possibilities that places such as Wakefield and Williamsburg (and northwest) may not see much more than a dusting. Didn`t go quite this low with the forecast, but would not be shocked. Thought about canceling the far northern tier of Winter Weather Advisories, but we are concerned that even a dusting of snow combined with the very cold temperatures could result in travel impacts. .

HRR was a dumpster fire for anything N of the NC/VA line .

12z HRR not looking as juicy as the 6z did .

0z CMC .

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GFS looking much better, low getting tucked into hatteras .

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RGEM and still snowing .

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Big jump with solid precip. Multiply by 15-18:1 .

Pretty big shift .

Some Hope! 15-20:1 rations would be big totals .

More of a neg tilt earlier? .

Trends are not good for many. Upstate would have to rely heavily on the front end ULL snow and often times they underperform. This could be slipping away. .

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6z Euro not looking good. Slashed QPF in half many locations .

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GFS noticeable shift west from 18z .

Yikes, NAM run is a dumpster fire compared to 18z .

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