bdgwx

Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased dramatically to 78 TJ. For point of comparison using official NHC advisories just prior to landfall... Hurricane Charley 2004 was 12 TJ. Hurricane Helene 2024 was 100 TJ. Hurricane Katrina 2005 was 120 TJ. Superstorm Sandy 2012 was 330 TJ.

Based on the 15Z & 18Z NHC update and the 18Z multiplatform wind field Milton's IKE has decreased to 37 TJ. Since the NHC does not publish the wind fields in their public advisories I can only estimate the IKE. We'll have to wait for the 21Z update for the official value. Anyway, this is good news in that the environment has been more hostile than forecasted in terms of Milton's overall wind field.

128 TJ at its peak. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php

Per the official 15Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased to 47 TJ. For point of comparison Charley 2004 had an IKE of only 12 TJ.

Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ. It is now forecasted to intensify to 70 TJ just prior to landfall. For point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 was only 12 TJ. If the current track and intensity forecast verifies then the 60 mile stretch of coastline and particularly the barrier islands from Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor are going to get rocked.

Raw T# - determined using the current scene Adj T# - basic constraint limit rules applied Fnl T# - adjusted value average of the last 3 hours CI# - average of the last 3 hours and with the full suite of rules applied ADT User Manual

I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker.

As we wait for recon flights here is the ADT history over the last 12 hours. ADT91 LIST 14L.ODT CKZ=YES ===== ADT-Version 9.1 ===== ----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- --------Tno/CI Rules-------- -Temperature- Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd ET ST Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Date (UTC) CI (CKZ)/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Flag Flag Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon 2024OCT08 061020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.9 6.7 5.8 0.5T/hour ON FLG OFF OFF -68.64 -75.85 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.16 90.04 2024OCT08 064020 7.7 896.7 161.0 6.7 6.6 6.0 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -74.43 -78.44 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.00 89.56 2024OCT08 071020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.7 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -70.52 -78.87 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.15 89.35 2024OCT08 074020 7.6 899.7 158.0 6.6 6.8 5.9 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -73.65 -77.17 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.15 89.57 2024OCT08 081020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.9 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -68.07 -78.98 EMBC N/A 78.5 22.21 89.13 2024OCT08 084020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.9 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -68.76 -78.17 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.22 89.06 2024OCT08 091020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.8 7.0 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -67.17 -77.76 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.30 88.90 2024OCT08 094020 7.6 899.6 158.0 6.8 6.9 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -68.53 -77.65 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.34 88.80 2024OCT08 101020 7.5 902.5 155.0 6.8 6.8 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -66.73 -78.66 EMBC N/A 75.0 22.37 88.90 2024OCT08 104020 7.3 908.4 149.0 6.8 6.6 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -67.28 -78.44 EMBC N/A 75.0 22.40 88.80 2024OCT08 111020 7.0 916.9 140.0 6.9 7.3 7.4 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -25.45 -77.72 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.43 88.79 2024OCT08 114020 7.0 916.9 140.0 6.9 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -25.94 -76.95 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.47 88.71 2024OCT08 121020 7.0 916.9 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -25.32 -77.04 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.48 88.69 2024OCT08 124020 7.0 916.9 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -25.55 -76.75 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.48 88.62 2024OCT08 131020 7.1 914.1 143.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -27.12 -76.51 EYE/P -99 IR 58.2 22.49 88.60 2024OCT08 134020 7.1 914.2 143.0 7.0 6.5 5.3 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -71.99 -76.10 UNIFRM N/A 58.2 22.23 88.47 2024OCT08 141020 7.1 914.1 143.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -54.89 -74.76 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.43 88.60 2024OCT08 144020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.8 6.5 5.2 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -58.42 -73.95 UNIFRM N/A 58.2 22.47 88.55 2024OCT08 151020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.7 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -49.48 -73.51 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.50 88.45 2024OCT08 154020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -34.11 -74.37 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.41 88.52 2024OCT08 161020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -36.56 -75.20 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.45 88.37 2024OCT08 165020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.5 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -38.67 -74.51 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.46 88.36 2024OCT08 171020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.5 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -14.98 -74.80 EYE 12 IR 58.2 22.45 88.24 2024OCT08 174020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.7 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 3.62 -76.18 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.41 88.17 2024OCT08 181020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.8 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 2.70 -77.16 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.43 88.05 2024OCT08 184020 7.1 915.1 143.0 7.0 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 3.09 -76.69 EYE 13 IR 58.2 22.48 87.96

Per the official 15Z NHC update Milton's IKE is currently 22 TJ and expected to increase to 63 TJ just prior to landfall.

That dropsonde had 24 kt winds so it's probably good for 897 mb.

899 mb on that pass.

Yeah, Milton is going black hole mode right now. NOAA2 cannot get there fast enough for some of us. Bizarrely ADT raw T# dropped to 7.4. Given the current satellite presentation...make that make sense.

NOAA2 better hustle. Milton is about to peak.

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it looks like the eye has contracted a bit over the last 30 minutes.

Yep. It is definitely gaining latitude now.

ADT raw T# is fluctuating some, but mostly steady over the last 2.5 hours. It is currently at 7.5. The final T# is starting to spool in now at 6.5.

While we wait for the next recon mission ADT final and raw T numbers are 6.0 and 7.5 respectively. The RI has made ADT slow to respond so the raw T number is probably more applicable right now.

The SFMR readings definitely look suspicious. I hope they put a dropsonde down in the eyewall on this pass so that we can confirm the FL-to-sfc relationship.

The RI rate is now 7.5 mb/hr.

The cone is the 1σ (68%) envelope. It is expected that tropical cyclones will deviate outside one specific side of the cone about 16% of the time. Given that Cedar Key is just inside the cone on the north side you can infer about a 20% chance.

Not that I trust it, but SFMR got 176 kts unflagged on that pass.

The dropsonde that reported 127 kts at the surface also reported a peak in the whole profile of 145 kts at 910 mb. The most recent drop in the NW eyewall only reported 105 kts at the surface but a remarkable 183 kts at 900 mb. It probably got entrained into a gust, but still...that's 211 mph!

NOAA3 mission 7 dropsonde at 12:54Z was 941 mb with 17 kts. AF309 mission 8 dropsonde at 14:12Z was 935 mb with 17 kts. That is almost 5 mb per hour.

That last dropsonde measured 935 mb with a 17 kt wind. That's good for at least 934 mb and possibly 933 mb.

Oof...that latest recon pass is nasty. 941 mb extrapolated, 143 kts FL, 146 kts SFMR, and a dropsonde of 127 kts at the surface. BTW that puts the FL to sfc conversion at 0.89.