Coach McGuirk

I have no hope for the next few weeks.

14 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

lol just wanna see the 0z go one tick further


.

I just want to see a good snow storm.  It has been since January 2018 since the Hampton Roads got a snow storm. 8-14 inches. 40 50 mph winds.

18z gfs is cold with a chance of snow 10 days out.

30/21 at Lyncburg.  This has ice storm written all over it.

4 Rain storms over the next ten days.  Then maybe snow?

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Heavy rainfall

Nothing like a heavy east coast rain storm in January to remind you of winter.

2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That's a heavy rainfall risk map..... not a severe thunderstorm map.

my bad, but still...

13 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

No snow, but the Tuesday system looks kinda fun

Welcome to the new normal, a January east coast thunderstorm threat.

55 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I mean, I feel like the whole narrative that we've had these fantastic day 10 looks only to have them disappear, isn't really true. We've had way less fantasy storms than normal, and the pattern hasn't really been all that great on ensembles at range either, just kinda oscillating between pretty good and not so great.There's been flashes of promise but nothing crazy. Now we're actually seeing a pretty legit -NAO and -AO at range. Not saying it all couldn't be a mirage after all, just think it's probably not fair to totally discount the modeled pattern change either. 

My guess, a period of cold and dry weather mid to late January.  Maybe early February we have a chance at something.

Hope is perpetually 2 weeks away.

January looks great west of the APPs.  Not so much the sotheast.

7 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The Award for Best Cherrypicker goes to…me!

 

It could happen.

2 hours ago, Jonathan said:

Then when we get to 1/12, we'll have kicked the can another two weeks down the road and saying "yeah, it sucks we lost the first 1/3 of winter but the pattern by the end of the month looks promising." Why does anyone put themselves through such torture. The snow line will be north of Kentucky in 5 years or less.

With that said, the 12z Euro had 15/50 ensemble members with accumulating snow in the foothills and western piedmont (I looked at KMTV Martinsville VA since it's close enough to the mountains but is still considered western piedmont. So there's that, I guess.

It will never get that bad in 5 years but it is getting harder and harder getting snow in the southeast.

9 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Looks pretty good after ~12th-15th timeframe

That is always the case.

22 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

Whether it's snow, rain, or nothing for us we need that system around the 4th to phase, deepen, and move into the 50/50 region to give us our best shot at something widespread with the following system on the 7th/8th. The GEFS was really sending a solid signal for it at 18z but even the ensemble is jumping around wildly, so clearly things are far from settled good or bad for next week. Canadiashows the potential if we can time things up right. 

A lot needs to go right for a snowstorm in the southeast.  We have none of that now.

00z op GFS absolue trash tonight.

18 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The long range looks very, very good. That is all

The long range always looks good until it actually happens.

It is certainly something to keep an eye on.  Temps are going to be too warm for any significant snow even if it is snow.

The operational 00Z GFS is garbage for us now outside of 7 days when it was looking so promising.  It's starting to look like last year all over again.

Maybe we get a little snow with the ULL swinging through in 7 days.

Got down to 19.8 IMBY.  Newport News was 19 this morning.  Norfolk was 30.  Their themometer must be on the water and on the tarmac.

23.9 imby and going to bed.  Probably will hit 22.

I finally got a weather station for my backyard.  Currenntly down to 28.8 in yorktown, va.  Coldest of the season.

First freeze of the season last night.  Newport news intl got down to 28.

We have had some power outages here in SEVA.  Newport News Intl top wind gust has been 39 MPH so far.

A lot of rain.  That's about it.