NCSNOW

Oh its accurate. Go pull up the 12z Nam sim radar views, zoom in at landfall forecast and its breathtaking how massive the eye. These EWRC have made this into a monster size wise. You can fit almost All of Randolph,Guilford,Forsyth and Davidson county inside the Nam sim view of the eyewall. Its posted on the other board. Really puts size of storm in perspective.

HWRF had this excat same track last night. Hit Morehead and went SW to Lumberton and spun itself out.

Yep, the euro and its end suite has done a very consistent job from late last week. Upper sc coast to Brunswick County,New Hanover county. None of this kiss Hatteras hula loop shenanigans.

The timing and strength of the OV ridge is gonna decide who and where the hammer is gonna drop. Some folks gonna need that hammer to help construct an Ark.

Latest hwrf loop takes Florence in Morehead area and goes west, then southwest to Lumberton by Saturday

Well step 1 prep is complete: fired up the 18 year old powerboss 5500 and it fired on the second pull. Haven't yanked it in several years. Deal I made 18 years ago gets cheaper every big wx event. Anyway I'll hold off on step 2 till tommorow afternoon or Wednesday, Gas and propane gas for Grill.

Yep lines up well with NHC forecast. Best bet is a Brunswick,NewHanover county landfall to me, with Horry County and Onslow being the goalpost now. Kinda of narrowing those down.

Off of masters site/blog: to 2012. Figure 5. Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) storm tide image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 2.3) near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. What’s plotted here is the storm tide--the height above ground of the storm surge, plus an additional rise in case the storm hits at high tide. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. Inundation of 15 -22’ can occur in a worst-case scenario along most of the coast. Note that not all sections of the coast will experience this surge level simultaneously; the peak values would occur near and to the right of the storm's center where it makes landfall. The image was created using the National Hurricane Center’s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. See our storm surge inundation maps for the U.S. coast for more information. A storm surge of 15 - 20' possible from Florence The South Carolina and North Carolina coasts are extremely vulnerable to high storm surges, due to the large area of shallow water offshore. Two of the three historical Category 4 hurricanes that have hit this region generated a storm tide 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge (plus tide) gets above the normal high tide mark. If Florence is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, it has the capability of generating a 20-foot surge along a 10 – 40 mile stretch of the coast where the right-hand eyewall comes ashore.

Agreed. This is already unprecedented making it all the way back here after it had gained so much poleward turf out in the Atlantic. It will be better for the landfall smash job to hit lookout. However , cant beleive Im saying this but the inland flood disaster that is gonna be the big history of this storm afterwards, would be handled better in western NC as oppossed the the eastern part. Our floods are here today and gone tommorow(flash). You dump that euro bullseye over the coastal plain of 40 plus inches and itll make Floyd look like chicken feed. Floods like Floyd dont just come and go like ours due to the topography. Anyway beside the brush and ots. Just not any good options available. This is not gonna end well and alot is to do with the inland flooding that will be historical with Florence stalling. All this on top of the landfall point destruction from surge and cat 4 winds.

I'd put way more weight toward the euro and its ens suite verse all the gfs and all those model plots that are derived off the same exact physics the gfs is. Just my 2 cents. I'd pay money for the gfs camp to finally get one right and save me alot of headaches selfishly. Always better to go lend help than be the one receiving it.

Check out Huffman latest tweet. Euro clown map showing 47 inch bullseye western NC. Sad thing is it floods river basin and comes right back down to landfall point/coastal areas that just got cat 4 landfall. Double delayed whammy.

Thing that's gonna make wind bad inland is the clockwise wind from HP building in out of Ohio valley combined with counterclockwise wind from florence. Be a tight squeeze out of northeast through central and western nc. That hp is what will block florence from just rounding the WAR.

Yep. You cant draw it any worse for Raleigh. And if it doesn't slam on brakes and start crawling at landfall, and gets on up i40, you'll be getting some major wind damage

Brad P said in his video Florence is about to go over almost 90 degree water. I need to check sst in path, had to be referring to gulf stream. Anyway if that is the case itll be like throwing gas on a bonfire when she goes across , espeacilly with no shear and perfect ventilation from the HP building over top.

If the euro verifies, he will highly likely be correct unfortunately. Bad enough when you get landfall from any tropical wx system. But ones that come inland and stall are the worst.

Generator Talk. I've had a 5,000 since year 2,000. I would reccomend you guys just go the extension cord route for fridge TV lamp and fans. Leave your hvac off and if you use your stove ,you'll be pulling all she has with one burner,let alone 2. So meal prep with the grills is best plan imo. Also if your on well water, it will run your pumps fine, but if you need to heat the water heater up for the kids and wifey. Just only run your water heater breaker for 30 mins and that will warm the tank water up for a hot quickie. Just get everything else appliance wise off while heating tank and runing water pump. And always have generator outside away from house, fumes co2 etc. If you have city water,then stay or use the extension cord route and it will alleviate alot of the discomfort of being off grid with the fridge,TV and several fans along with runing water.

Over 3 days straight of tropical rain per euro. Forget the hurricane force wind gust it gets all the way up into triad along with the tornado spin ups. That much rain would not bolld well for alot of folks.

Right on time for my grass sowing project. Course the seed is liable to end up on a riverbank down east somewhere.

Comes right over Rockingham into Richmond county hr168. And it's not crawling eitheir, much like hugo did as well. On the move.

Euro at 72hr: Cant get pics to post. See thumbnail & Yea Shaggy I agree. Of course back here , way inland a SC coastal hit is how we expierence the most from landfalling Canes or the leftovers. I caution everyone to take notice of the forward speed at landfall. Its been pretty fast in my opinion on the models today. That compounds the problems not only at the coast, but inland as well.

Euro looks further south than 0z so far. See what happens

NHC has Florence forecasted to become a Major again over the weekend ( see gif attached). All models now pinpoint Savannah/Charleston up to the obx for landfall. 12z Euro should be out soon.

Went ahead and started a Florence thread. Hopefully it's for naught and not an historical thread we come back and read years latter.